4 ms·

Are you expecting nuclear war in Europe? If so, what makes you believe it's impending?

Animats 2y ago
I'm expecting the current war in Europe to expand. Threats against Latvia, Lithuania and Poland have already started.[1] [1] https://www.politico.eu/article/war-russia-ukraine-latvia-mounts-border-watch/ https://www.politico.eu/article/war-russia-ukraine-latvia-mo...
- _heimdall 2y ago
  That article is from Jan 2022 though, has anything changed since then? I was concerned that Russia had its eye on the Suwalki Gap around the time but since then I haven't seen any real movement towards the Gap to the Baltic states.
  - skullone 2y ago
    Do you follow current events independently whatsoever?
    - _heimdall 2y ago
      Sure, but sources vary greatly and I don't have sources on the ground that I can pull first hand Intel from. What is your point exactly?
    - houseplant 2y ago
      it sounds like you do, though, so I'm sure you've got some relevant and up-to-the-minute sources to share with us so we all can be up to date as well. thanks in advance
  - roenxi 2y ago
    Wars are large, slow-moving beasts. Even if nothing had changed in Europe (beyond executing the 2022 plans, anyway) it'd be reasonable to expect the current conflict to expand. There was a concerning level of global instability starting to bubble even before COVID hit. The US military didn't suddenly lose the ability to deter Russia in 2022. And China's growing military budget is also related because the US can't realistically manage a whole bunch of theatres simultaneously - so the Europeans are re-arming. Of course the realignment caused by the Europeans having significant militaries can only be positive for EU-US relations. I can really only see the Europeans using their military to defend against the sort of aggressors who would go in and blow up things like the Nord Stream pipeline so there wouldn't be any cause for tension with the Americas.
- vkou 2y ago
  You're concerned that Russia, the country that has spent two years struggling to win a war against the poorest country in Europe is going to invade NATO? I have some great deals on oceanfront property in Magnitogorsk that I'm willing to cut you in on.
  - _heimdall 2y ago
    I agree it seems unlikely, but the concern isn't totally unfounded. Russia has invested heavily in its military and if the Ukraine war ended today there is a question of whether the military would be disbanded or refocused. There is also an increase in turmoil in NATO countries. The UK still hasn't really figured out how to not be part of the EU and many countries, from the US to France and Belgium, are seeing an increase in support for populist parties. If Russia was interested in regaining former Soviet territory, NATO may currently look weak to them.
    - bigfudge 2y ago
      Give the uk a chance. It will take time to unwind some of the more stupid brexit decisions without obviously losing face. There is appetite for it, but it’s probably going to take at least another govt to be able to make consequential decisions without reopening the wound
    - ajuc 2y ago
      Russia can't win against Ukraine supported with about 0.5% of NATO military budget. If it started a war against actual NATO it would end in Iraq-style massacre of their army. Even without significant USA support - European NATO countries have enough airpower to manage. This is all PR to slow down help to Ukraine. They did the same in 2008 and in 2014.
      - protomolecule 2y ago
        > it would end in Iraq-style massacre of their army More like with Hiroshima-style massacre of European cities.
- ajuc 2y ago
  Poland has been threatened with nuclear apocalypse by Russia every few years since 1989. It's just how Russia does politics, ignore it and send more weapons to Ukraine to end this quickly. One example from 2008: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/aug/15/russia.poland.nuclear.missiles.threat https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/aug/15/russia.poland....
GJim 2y ago
Putin is doing his ridiculous nuclear sabre-rattling again? It must be Monday. (Frankly, we are all rather board of it.)

I'm expecting the current war in Europe to expand. Threats against Latvia, Lithuania and Poland have already started.[1] [1] https://www.politico.eu/article/war-russia-ukraine-latvia-mounts-border-watch/ https://www.politico.eu/article/war-russia-ukraine-latvia-mo...

_heimdall 2y ago
That article is from Jan 2022 though, has anything changed since then? I was concerned that Russia had its eye on the Suwalki Gap around the time but since then I haven't seen any real movement towards the Gap to the Baltic states.
- skullone 2y ago
  Do you follow current events independently whatsoever?
  - _heimdall 2y ago
    Sure, but sources vary greatly and I don't have sources on the ground that I can pull first hand Intel from. What is your point exactly?
  - houseplant 2y ago
    it sounds like you do, though, so I'm sure you've got some relevant and up-to-the-minute sources to share with us so we all can be up to date as well. thanks in advance
- roenxi 2y ago
  Wars are large, slow-moving beasts. Even if nothing had changed in Europe (beyond executing the 2022 plans, anyway) it'd be reasonable to expect the current conflict to expand. There was a concerning level of global instability starting to bubble even before COVID hit. The US military didn't suddenly lose the ability to deter Russia in 2022. And China's growing military budget is also related because the US can't realistically manage a whole bunch of theatres simultaneously - so the Europeans are re-arming. Of course the realignment caused by the Europeans having significant militaries can only be positive for EU-US relations. I can really only see the Europeans using their military to defend against the sort of aggressors who would go in and blow up things like the Nord Stream pipeline so there wouldn't be any cause for tension with the Americas.
vkou 2y ago
You're concerned that Russia, the country that has spent two years struggling to win a war against the poorest country in Europe is going to invade NATO? I have some great deals on oceanfront property in Magnitogorsk that I'm willing to cut you in on.
- _heimdall 2y ago
  I agree it seems unlikely, but the concern isn't totally unfounded. Russia has invested heavily in its military and if the Ukraine war ended today there is a question of whether the military would be disbanded or refocused. There is also an increase in turmoil in NATO countries. The UK still hasn't really figured out how to not be part of the EU and many countries, from the US to France and Belgium, are seeing an increase in support for populist parties. If Russia was interested in regaining former Soviet territory, NATO may currently look weak to them.
  - bigfudge 2y ago
    Give the uk a chance. It will take time to unwind some of the more stupid brexit decisions without obviously losing face. There is appetite for it, but it’s probably going to take at least another govt to be able to make consequential decisions without reopening the wound
  - ajuc 2y ago
    Russia can't win against Ukraine supported with about 0.5% of NATO military budget. If it started a war against actual NATO it would end in Iraq-style massacre of their army. Even without significant USA support - European NATO countries have enough airpower to manage. This is all PR to slow down help to Ukraine. They did the same in 2008 and in 2014.
    - protomolecule 2y ago
      > it would end in Iraq-style massacre of their army More like with Hiroshima-style massacre of European cities.
ajuc 2y ago
Poland has been threatened with nuclear apocalypse by Russia every few years since 1989. It's just how Russia does politics, ignore it and send more weapons to Ukraine to end this quickly. One example from 2008: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/aug/15/russia.poland.nuclear.missiles.threat https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/aug/15/russia.poland....

GJim 2y ago

Putin is doing his ridiculous nuclear sabre-rattling again? It must be Monday. (Frankly, we are all rather board of it.)