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With mathematical models. People suck at predicting the future of complex socially driven domains. The popular pundits are some of the worst predictors, but the
by smarm52 2y ago
With mathematical models. People suck at predicting the future of complex socially driven domains. The popular pundits are some of the worst predictors, but they do make easy media to sell.
Tetlock, P. E. (2017). Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know?-New edition. In Expert Political Judgment. Princeton University Press.
- AbstractH24 2y agoPolitics is much harder. The number of variables in tech to identify the most likely outcomes is actually quite limited.
- smarm52 2y agoNot sure, OP is asking about what is essentially a popularity contest. A popularity contest does sound pretty similar to a political race to me.