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China Is Losing the Chip War

11 points by jseliger 2y ago

6510 2y ago
This is pretty comical. Do we really think doing a kind of news blackout where nothing interesting ever happens in China is going to alter the reality behind the curtain? From what I understand the Chinese are masters at retooling. They can overnight go from maximizing paperclips to making ski lifts in the same factory. Their chip making effort is focusing on technology several years old, the kind that makes up 80% of the market. Meanwhile back at the lab they are doing photonic chips where the major difference is that unlike in the west (where great research ends with a published paper and decades of radio silence) they very much look at their findings from a practical perspective. The optical circuits aren't going to collect dust on some shelve, they are going to make them on a massive scale in the next 2-5 years, they will be much much faster, cheap and come in insane volume. They didn't want to but Bidden told them to do it and helped them along by creating favorable market conditions in China where they only have to compete with crappy western chips. I also hear they do have cutting edge chips with garbage yields. The sanctions impact on military use will be minimal.
- MaxPock 2y ago
  The goal posts keep changing "They are making 5nm chips but what about yields" Shouldn't that be for China to worry about ? I mean ,if CCP is willing to subsidize 20 % yield rate , we should be happy that they are burning cash . Funny thing is that I don't see the same energy and concern for Samsung's 40% yields on EUV nodes.
  - 6510 2y ago
    I'm not worried nor happy, it's just interesting what is going on. Memristors, quantum computers and photonics sound like a big deal IF people can get it to work. https://www.tue.nl/en/news-and-events/news-overview/14-04-2022-photondelta-lands-eur11-billion-to-usher-in-a-new-generation-of-semiconductor-technology/ https://www.tue.nl/en/news-and-events/news-overview/14-04-20...

11 points by jseliger 2y ago

6510 2y ago

This is pretty comical. Do we really think doing a kind of news blackout where nothing interesting ever happens in China is going to alter the reality behind the curtain? From what I understand the Chinese are masters at retooling. They can overnight go from maximizing paperclips to making ski lifts in the same factory. Their chip making effort is focusing on technology several years old, the kind that makes up 80% of the market. Meanwhile back at the lab they are doing photonic chips where the major difference is that unlike in the west (where great research ends with a published paper and decades of radio silence) they very much look at their findings from a practical perspective. The optical circuits aren't going to collect dust on some shelve, they are going to make them on a massive scale in the next 2-5 years, they will be much much faster, cheap and come in insane volume. They didn't want to but Bidden told them to do it and helped them along by creating favorable market conditions in China where they only have to compete with crappy western chips. I also hear they do have cutting edge chips with garbage yields. The sanctions impact on military use will be minimal.

MaxPock 2y ago
The goal posts keep changing "They are making 5nm chips but what about yields" Shouldn't that be for China to worry about ? I mean ,if CCP is willing to subsidize 20 % yield rate , we should be happy that they are burning cash . Funny thing is that I don't see the same energy and concern for Samsung's 40% yields on EUV nodes.
- 6510 2y ago
  I'm not worried nor happy, it's just interesting what is going on. Memristors, quantum computers and photonics sound like a big deal IF people can get it to work. https://www.tue.nl/en/news-and-events/news-overview/14-04-2022-photondelta-lands-eur11-billion-to-usher-in-a-new-generation-of-semiconductor-technology/ https://www.tue.nl/en/news-and-events/news-overview/14-04-20...