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Technical indicators work because they work. Really - it works because other traders decided there are price points of significance based on mathematical equat

Technical indicators work because they work. Really - it works because other traders decided there are price points of significance based on mathematical equations and act on it. Traditional technical analysis could be seen as looking for a set of technical indicators that optimally describe the amalgamation of TA and the capital it controls on the market at the moment. But nowadays it's very hard to make it work.

mmarian 2y ago
Right, that makes sense from a logical standpoint. Do you know of any empirical research around this? From what I can tell the evidence seems against it, eg see this paper https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11408-023-00433-2 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11408-023-00433-2
- throwAGIway 2y ago
  As I said, nowadays it's not working so well. I wouldn't do it - saying this as a former trader that used it successfully (15-20% returns p.a.) for more than a decade, but 20 years ago. Today I don't daytrade at all, just some stock picking based on my knowledge of the tech industry.
  - mmarian 2y ago
    Fair enough. How come you didn't look into other strategies? And what did you switch your focus to? Asking because I want to keep my options open for now, while I figure out if this will work for me.
    - throwAGIway 2y ago
      I started to make much more money by just spending the same amount of time writing enterprise software. HFTs made it very hard to find a moat in technical trading, I don't believe you can beat them at their own game today; I especially don't think you can just make something and get passive income from it - that was never the case, it was always a job, though very flexible one. I switched to stock picking based on the premise that the market at large might be momentarily irrational because it doesn't have the same insight into the tech industry as I do - e.g. I made good profits on AMD between $30 and $150, Nvidia $100 to $400, some medium term trades on Supermicro and TSMC.
      - mmarian 2y ago
        > I started to make much more money by just spending the same amount of time writing enterprise software As in a day job in enterprise software? How come you didn't consider joining an asset management firm as a quant dev? I heard they're very lucrative. > I switched to stock picking based on the premise that the market at large might be momentarily irrational I see, sounds like a momentum strat.
        throwAGIway 2y ago
        Yeah, a day job. I'm not in the US and there are no such quant positions that would accept me remotely and/or pay more than the remote-only US corporate job I have. But I'd probably avoid it even if I was in the US, I don't like long hours and stress.
        mmarian 2y ago
        Makes sense. Appreciate the conversation! Don't have people to talk to in my personal network about this topic.
        throwAGIway 2y ago
        Cheers and best of luck

mmarian 2y ago

Right, that makes sense from a logical standpoint. Do you know of any empirical research around this? From what I can tell the evidence seems against it, eg see this paper https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11408-023-00433-2 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11408-023-00433-2

throwAGIway 2y ago
As I said, nowadays it's not working so well. I wouldn't do it - saying this as a former trader that used it successfully (15-20% returns p.a.) for more than a decade, but 20 years ago. Today I don't daytrade at all, just some stock picking based on my knowledge of the tech industry.
- mmarian 2y ago
  Fair enough. How come you didn't look into other strategies? And what did you switch your focus to? Asking because I want to keep my options open for now, while I figure out if this will work for me.
  - throwAGIway 2y ago
    I started to make much more money by just spending the same amount of time writing enterprise software. HFTs made it very hard to find a moat in technical trading, I don't believe you can beat them at their own game today; I especially don't think you can just make something and get passive income from it - that was never the case, it was always a job, though very flexible one. I switched to stock picking based on the premise that the market at large might be momentarily irrational because it doesn't have the same insight into the tech industry as I do - e.g. I made good profits on AMD between $30 and $150, Nvidia $100 to $400, some medium term trades on Supermicro and TSMC.
    - mmarian 2y ago
      > I started to make much more money by just spending the same amount of time writing enterprise software As in a day job in enterprise software? How come you didn't consider joining an asset management firm as a quant dev? I heard they're very lucrative. > I switched to stock picking based on the premise that the market at large might be momentarily irrational I see, sounds like a momentum strat.
      - throwAGIway 2y ago
        Yeah, a day job. I'm not in the US and there are no such quant positions that would accept me remotely and/or pay more than the remote-only US corporate job I have. But I'd probably avoid it even if I was in the US, I don't like long hours and stress.
        mmarian 2y ago
        Makes sense. Appreciate the conversation! Don't have people to talk to in my personal network about this topic.
        throwAGIway 2y ago
        Cheers and best of luck