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> So... what now? We conclude that the original claim cannot be verified and we reformulate it in a more useful form. Sometimes the correct answer is "we do n

> So... what now? We conclude that the original claim cannot be verified and we reformulate it in a more useful form. Sometimes the correct answer is "we do not know", and we all should get more comfortable with that. Here it is even worse than that. It is a "we do not know and we will never know". Or you can say "I think that statement is true." That is entirely up to you. It tells us about your mind state and you are the primary source of information on that. Saying it is "easy to verify" is not the same kind of thing. It is about the statement itself.

intended 2y ago
Ok - The most substantial claims for LLMs today come from 2 general areas - code copilots (github published, google published), and reduction in time to proficiency for new hires. That said, it may unlock additional capabilities. Additionally, language processing has a massive gap when it comes to languages that most of humanity speaks. (Gabriel Nichols, CDT paper) It appears that LLM capability growth is likely to plateau, although this is to be confirmed. https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.04125 https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.04125 Furthermore, having seen GenAI deployments in workplaces, they also suffer from those issues that plague all ML and AI projects. As initially stated, Cargo containers work across cultures, are standardized across humanity, and underpin all our goods transport. Given an infinite timeline, it is well likely that cargo containers will outperform LLMs, because the market for pure information will always be at the mercy of physical goods required to generate that information. So even if LLMs magically improve and become all pervasive gods, they will still need to transfer goods using cargo containers. Given that this is a HN comment, and not a dissertation, within that social context, I submit that the original postulate, was correct and sufficient.

intended 2y ago

Ok - The most substantial claims for LLMs today come from 2 general areas - code copilots (github published, google published), and reduction in time to proficiency for new hires. That said, it may unlock additional capabilities. Additionally, language processing has a massive gap when it comes to languages that most of humanity speaks. (Gabriel Nichols, CDT paper) It appears that LLM capability growth is likely to plateau, although this is to be confirmed. https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.04125 https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.04125 Furthermore, having seen GenAI deployments in workplaces, they also suffer from those issues that plague all ML and AI projects. As initially stated, Cargo containers work across cultures, are standardized across humanity, and underpin all our goods transport. Given an infinite timeline, it is well likely that cargo containers will outperform LLMs, because the market for pure information will always be at the mercy of physical goods required to generate that information. So even if LLMs magically improve and become all pervasive gods, they will still need to transfer goods using cargo containers. Given that this is a HN comment, and not a dissertation, within that social context, I submit that the original postulate, was correct and sufficient.