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US Payroll Gains Not as Robust as Reported, New Data Suggest
- downrightmike 2y agoEveryone that got laid off, getting a shittier job does NOT improve the economy.
- smt88 2y ago> getting a shittier job does NOT improve the economy Who do you think believes this? Who are you arguing against, exactly?
- GauntletWizard 2y agoThe politicians who constantly cite "Job Creation" numbers that are not net, and don't distinguish between mcjobs and high-paying ones.
- downrightmike 2y ago[flagged]
- smt88 2y agoI don't know why you're being downvoted. This is a direct and reasonable answer to my question.
- GauntletWizard 2y agoI seem to have attracted the ire of HN's community censors for commentary on their attempts to revise the past. A lost of my posts seem to have caught a flurry of downvotes.
- yazzku 2y agoHN is pro-establishment now.
- sharemywin 2y agoI didn't down vote you but you didn't respond to this: "Yes they do, this is what the underemployment metrics measure." which is probably why. if your going to throw out stuff you need to back it up with links and other types of evidence. HN isn't like other social media.
- astrange 2y agoI don't see any evidence that people getting laid off in the tech sector are getting "McJobs". And people outside the tech sector aren't getting laid off in especially high numbers at all. In fact, income inequality seriously decreased in the US since 2019. https://www.nber.org/papers/w31010 https://www.nber.org/papers/w31010
- laidoffamazon 2y agoThere is not any evidence of people getting worse jobs or underemployment increasing dramatically and it’s mostly just mass hysteria promoted by social media.
- laidoffamazon 2y agoYes they do, this is what the underemployment metrics measure.
- downrightmike 2y agoEveryone who is essential. Pretty much how its been since the pandemic started https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/05/25/service-workers-job-burnout/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/05/25/service...
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- paulryanrogers 2y agoWeren't like 30%+ of jobs considered essential during the pandemic?
- decremental 2y ago[dead]
- frugalmail 2y ago[flagged]
- tippytippytango 2y agoAmmo for rate cuts?
- ein0p 2y agoCan’t cut rates: need to sell debt
- surfaceofthesun 2y agoAre there any examples of a nation that controls a/the reserve currency having difficulty issuing debt?
- ein0p 2y agoYes: the United States. That’s in part why it raises the rates: so that debt has higher yields and there are more buyers for it. Next year we will spend ~1.7T on interest alone, money for which we’re going to borrow as well, likely at an ever higher rate of return
- seanhunter 2y agoTo put this in context so you see why the threshold is important > payrolls might have grown about 60,000 less per month on average last year than the roughly 250,000 run-rate derived from the agency’s monthly employment report. So net they grew 190k per month. You might think to yourself "well that's nearly the same and still pretty good right?". Not really. 200k per month is the magic number that traders are looking for when they trade the NFP[1] number. If the economy doesn't grow by 200k jobs then the unemployment is rising because US population growth is about 200k per month so you need that many new jobs per month for the unemployment rate to stay flat. So not only does this make it less on an absolute basis, because it goes below that threshold it indicates that the economy was shrinking, not growing. [1] Non-farm payroll https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nonfarmpayroll.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nonfarmpayroll.asp
- laidoffamazon 2y agoIf you want to convince yourself of this to spur rate cuts that’s fine but 200k as the natural monthly increase in the labor force is completely arbitrary and new and not the assumed number for the last decade+. The prime age labor force participation rate is as high as it was during the dot com boom, there’s not a lot of slack in the current labor market even if it could theoretically weaken.