Is 50% based on analysis and projections, or is this just another CEO sticking a finger in the air, banging a drum and willing it? Don't they realize they comp

Is 50% based on analysis and projections, or is this just another CEO sticking a finger in the air, banging a drum and willing it? Don't they realize they completely lose credibility when they do this? I guess by this stage they're so wrapped up in their own importance maybe not.