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> Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? Imagine asking these que

> Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? Imagine asking these questions in the early 90's when "the web" was just getting started. Or when bitcoin was $0.10. These are the sorts of headlines people make fun of later on, “The internet is just a fad.” People learned their lessons and are way more willing to make bets on the future. Right now, clearly this is AI.

aprilthird2021 2y ago
Imagine asking these questions about the "metaverse" and cryptocurrencies just 2-3 years ago. Some technologies are great, pioneering even, and full of potential, and still flop in the market.
- latchkey 2y ago
  Poor choice of examples. Bitcoin at $71k is hardly a flop. That was a term coined by stephenson during the early web, 1992. Virtual worlds are still extremely popular.
  - aprilthird2021 2y ago
    If you want to argue and pretend there weren't tons and tons of companies and technical products tied to both cryptocurrency and VR/AR lately that absolutely flopped despite being technically unique and innovative by cherry picking things that would have been sound investments back then and ignoring the myriad ways you'd have lost money or the fact that Bitcoin has less usefulness as a technology now than when it was hyped, fine
    - latchkey 2y ago
      Are you really trying to argue that all companies in a space need to succeed, for the space to be successful? As for bitcoin itself, people and companies have hyped it for their own benefit, but bitcoin itself isn't a company, and therefore isn't hyped. It is one technology that lives on its own and survives primarily because of the will of the people that choose to participate in it.
      - aprilthird2021 2y ago
        No I'm not arguing that. It should be obvious
    - Jlagreen 2y ago
      Correct, so it's impossible to determine the winners and losers in AI. But no matter what all the companies will do with AI, they will all need AI computing. So it's not so difficult to predict that Nvidia will be a clear winner. Nvidia has had competition for 8 years in the AI space. Their market share today is more dominant than it ever used to be. Probably, Nvidia has already won because of 5 million CUDA developer who will hardly switch to other platforms. It's basically Windows SDK and Apple/Android SDK reloaded.
      - aprilthird2021 2y ago
        > But no matter what all the companies will do with AI, they will all need AI computing. They may not. Like I said before, there have been many very innovative technologies that did not see uptake by the general public as was expected (VR, cryptocurrency). AI could be the next cloud computing that every company pays for but which eventually commoditized down to a relatively low margin business. It could be something Nvidia strangleholds and milks money out of for decades with little competition like Facebook with social media, or it could be something people don't reach for as much as we thought they would. We don't know yet
gizajob 2y ago
I know what you’re saying but I thought it worthwhile restating the question now that Nvidia is at $3trillion, because I really do care about the answers. I am tech heavy and have been for the past 25 years, and consider myself reasonably well informed… but it seems like AI really isn’t impacting life to the point where I am certain Nvidia is headed for a $10trillion valuation or a $1trillion one in 3 years time.
- latchkey 2y ago
  > it seems like AI really isn’t impacting life to the point where I am certain Nvidia is headed for a $10trillion valuation or a $1trillion one in 3 years time. How much is the internet worth today?

aprilthird2021 2y ago

Imagine asking these questions about the "metaverse" and cryptocurrencies just 2-3 years ago. Some technologies are great, pioneering even, and full of potential, and still flop in the market.

latchkey 2y ago
Poor choice of examples. Bitcoin at $71k is hardly a flop. That was a term coined by stephenson during the early web, 1992. Virtual worlds are still extremely popular.
- aprilthird2021 2y ago
  If you want to argue and pretend there weren't tons and tons of companies and technical products tied to both cryptocurrency and VR/AR lately that absolutely flopped despite being technically unique and innovative by cherry picking things that would have been sound investments back then and ignoring the myriad ways you'd have lost money or the fact that Bitcoin has less usefulness as a technology now than when it was hyped, fine
  - latchkey 2y ago
    Are you really trying to argue that all companies in a space need to succeed, for the space to be successful? As for bitcoin itself, people and companies have hyped it for their own benefit, but bitcoin itself isn't a company, and therefore isn't hyped. It is one technology that lives on its own and survives primarily because of the will of the people that choose to participate in it.
    - aprilthird2021 2y ago
      No I'm not arguing that. It should be obvious
  - Jlagreen 2y ago
    Correct, so it's impossible to determine the winners and losers in AI. But no matter what all the companies will do with AI, they will all need AI computing. So it's not so difficult to predict that Nvidia will be a clear winner. Nvidia has had competition for 8 years in the AI space. Their market share today is more dominant than it ever used to be. Probably, Nvidia has already won because of 5 million CUDA developer who will hardly switch to other platforms. It's basically Windows SDK and Apple/Android SDK reloaded.
    - aprilthird2021 2y ago
      > But no matter what all the companies will do with AI, they will all need AI computing. They may not. Like I said before, there have been many very innovative technologies that did not see uptake by the general public as was expected (VR, cryptocurrency). AI could be the next cloud computing that every company pays for but which eventually commoditized down to a relatively low margin business. It could be something Nvidia strangleholds and milks money out of for decades with little competition like Facebook with social media, or it could be something people don't reach for as much as we thought they would. We don't know yet

gizajob 2y ago

I know what you’re saying but I thought it worthwhile restating the question now that Nvidia is at $3trillion, because I really do care about the answers. I am tech heavy and have been for the past 25 years, and consider myself reasonably well informed… but it seems like AI really isn’t impacting life to the point where I am certain Nvidia is headed for a $10trillion valuation or a $1trillion one in 3 years time.

latchkey 2y ago
> it seems like AI really isn’t impacting life to the point where I am certain Nvidia is headed for a $10trillion valuation or a $1trillion one in 3 years time. How much is the internet worth today?