4 ms·

WHO confirms first fatal human case of bird flu A(H5N2)

50 points by amichail 2y ago

TurkishPoptart 2y ago
Here we go again!
- Ancapistani 2y ago
  I’ll start worrying when there’s person to person transfer.
  - noduerme 2y ago
    Have you run a model on how many mutations are required for sustained transfer? (I have). I have to say: This attitude that "I'll worry when the system starts crashing" is very un-hacker-like. Aside from dismissing minority hypotheses until disaster strikes, it lacks the ethos of seeing prevention as a valuable investment. In other words, if this were an interview, I would never hire someone who said "I'll worry about it when shit hits the fan".
    - andrew_gs 2y ago
      I think it's a very reasonable attitude. The person your replying too is stating their personal position. I'm also unlikely to worry personally at the moment because there are other people much better suited to do that whose job it is to do that. There are some many things going on at any one time that reducing what we personally need to be concerned about is a pretty valid strategy.
      - noduerme 2y ago
        I'm not saying one should spend one's life planning for nuclear war, H5N1 and a zombie apocalypse. Filter out first what rises to your threshold of concern. But as with a codebase that you know might have vulnerabilities: Consider what those might be, and start to prepare for them proactively. Just saying fuckit is neither useful nor a good look. Unit test your life.
    - memen 2y ago
      > Have you run a model on how many mutations are required for sustained transfer? (I have). Interesting! Can you share some reads on that?
      - noduerme 2y ago
        So, consider this a starting point... https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/30/3/23-1098_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/30/3/23-1098_article https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3922066/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3922066/ Influenza A mutation rates: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/110197v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/110197v1 My models are damn simple, though. It doesn't matter if you need 6 or 12 mutations. (Or it only really changes the kickoff by a few weeks at most). It doesn't matter if those incubate in 1 million or 6 million human/pigs/cattle. The times begin to converge in a very short range. What we do know is that it took about six months to develop a dozen mutations to go from birds to dairy cattle, and it took 4 months to detect that, in March. Any way you model it we have between 2 weeks and 2 months. Before humans start coughing it at each other and dying like masses of sea lions already did.
    - Ancapistani 2y ago
      Nope. Even if I had the ability to do so, what good would it do me? What good would it do anyone? There’s literally no way I would be able to impact its mutation rate. I’m going to keep writing software and raising my family.
      - nonstandarduser 2y ago
        There IS nothing we can do about it. It seems likely that we will see some form of outbreak in humans. The severity is an unknown. What we can do is have a plan to deal with it as best as we can. Keep some extra supplies and medications to last for a few weeks if it gets risky to go outside. I'm not going down a list as everyone's situation is different, but most reasonable steps you can take are pretty cheap and easy to do in the here and now, before panic buying and price gouging start. The WHO seems concerned. https://www.who.int/news/item/12-07-2023-ongoing-avian-influenza-outbreaks-in-animals-pose-risk-to-humans https://www.who.int/news/item/12-07-2023-ongoing-avian-influ...
pedalpete 2y ago
"had multiple underlying medical conditions and had been bedridden for three weeks, for other reasons, prior to the onset of acute symptoms" I don't see a quote from the WHO that says this person died of bird flu, just that this person who was already very very ill was tested after they died and it was found they had bird flu.
- JackeJR 2y ago
  The claim may just be a result of how cause of death is determined.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- zerocrates 2y ago
  Here's WHO's statement: https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON520 https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2... They do call it "a confirmed fatal case of human infection with avian influenza A(H5N2) virus" though the report focuses more on it being the first confirmed human case at all than the fact that the person died.
- deadbolt 2y ago
  I'm wondering how they could have contracted bird flu while being bedridden for three weeks...
  - MrDresden 2y ago
    Raw dairy products come to mind as a possibility.
    - Steven420 2y ago
      Chicken milk?
      - pedalpete 2y ago
susiecambria 2y ago
Here's more information: Avian Influenza A (H5N2) - Mexico (WHO, June 5, 2024) https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON520 https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2...
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
noduerme 2y ago
Can we talk for a moment about the beef supply? Bird flu has now been found in both meat and dairy. The only guidance given so far by CDC is to cook meat to 160 deg. Well done. Let's put aside for a moment what that means about rare steaks... What about the millions of workers who cook burgers and handle large amounts of raw meat on a daily basis, then rub their eyes or noses? These are probably thousands of daily opportunities for the virus to jump species and attack human lung cells. Compared to the chances of infection followed by human-to-human mutation in a small rural community where someone is exposed to sick birds and becomes a dead-end case, we are entering territory where the odds of that deadly mutation are orders of magnitude higher, and compounding daily. I said a month ago that June 15th will be day zero for this to enter public consciousness with a sustained human chain of transmission and high mortality. I'm still standing by that date give or take a week.
- ssl-3 2y ago
  > Can we talk for a moment about the beef supply? Bird flu has now been found in both meat and dairy. The only guidance given so far by CDC is to cook meat to 160 deg. Well done. Let's put aside for a moment what that means about rare steaks... We can start by talking about the fact that there seems to be no specific guidance from the CDC or USDA that suggests cooking steaks to 160F is necessary to kill bird flu, or that generally suggests this practice of cooking steaks to well-done. In fact, a report on a very recent USDA FSIS study states the following about some intentionally-inoculated ground beef patties: "There was no virus present in the burgers cooked to 145 (medium) or 160 (well done) degrees, which is FSIS’ recommended cooking temperature. Even cooking burgers to 120 (rare) degrees, which is well below the recommended temperature, substantially inactivated the virus." https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/livestock/h5n1-beef-safety-studies https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/a... > What about the millions of workers who cook burgers and handle large amounts of raw meat on a daily basis, then rub their eyes or noses? These are probably thousands of daily opportunities for the virus to jump species and attack human lung cells. I'm just gonna leave this here: https://www.osha.gov/meatpacking/hazards-solutions https://www.osha.gov/meatpacking/hazards-solutions
  - 2y ago
bombi 2y ago
[flagged]
- dayjaby 2y ago
  4kg apples a day keeps the doctor away.
- noduerme 2y ago
  uh from someone with a family history of overloading on vitamin C and getting kidney stones: DO NOT FOLLOW THIS ADVICE. And no, 5g of vitamin C a day as my dad did for years does not ward off viruses but it does put you in a hospital with your dick in a plastic jar while you howl until the stone passes.
znpy 2y ago
Oh shit here we go again
alexk307 2y ago
Where did H5N2 come from? Isn't all the current alarm/spread coming from H5N1?
- greazy 2y ago
  It's a virus present in wild bird population. There are many more flu viruses in avians than there are in humans. They periodically make the jump into humans causing disease
salemh 2y ago
[dead]
nonstandarduser 2y ago
Yes, but it's a right fine petri dish we've got going here. Seems like Avian Flu likes mammals and rodents too, and it's not particular about which ones it hangs out in either. https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/mammals https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/a... I'm not sure why the Telegraph got all bent out of shape over a few mice in New Mexico. If you scroll down and look at the table provided in the link above you will see that 17 domestic cats in 8 different states have tested positive, 17 cases in raccoons in various states, Over 90 cases in red foxes, around 40 cases in skunks, and 6 cases reported in possums, and many others. So it spreads to any carnivorous or omnivorous mammal that feeds on birds, birds' eggs or scavenges their carrion. As well as a some that are probably getting it transmitted by some secondary means, such as contact with feces, eating another infected mammal or rodent, drinking cow's milk, etc. It does not appear that it is spreading from species member to species member, except maybe for the red fox? A lot of this data is from 2022 and 2023. Not sure if they are no longer detecting it, or no longer testing a given species. You can read at the top of the page that there is no systematic testing of wild mammals, and that they are getting this ad hoc from "reporting agencies". I thought this link might also be useful: https://www.who.int/news/item/12-07-2023-ongoing-avian-influenza-outbreaks-in-animals-pose-risk-to-humans https://www.who.int/news/item/12-07-2023-ongoing-avian-influ...

50 points by amichail 2y ago

TurkishPoptart 2y ago

Here we go again!

Ancapistani 2y ago
I’ll start worrying when there’s person to person transfer.
- noduerme 2y ago
  Have you run a model on how many mutations are required for sustained transfer? (I have). I have to say: This attitude that "I'll worry when the system starts crashing" is very un-hacker-like. Aside from dismissing minority hypotheses until disaster strikes, it lacks the ethos of seeing prevention as a valuable investment. In other words, if this were an interview, I would never hire someone who said "I'll worry about it when shit hits the fan".
  - andrew_gs 2y ago
    I think it's a very reasonable attitude. The person your replying too is stating their personal position. I'm also unlikely to worry personally at the moment because there are other people much better suited to do that whose job it is to do that. There are some many things going on at any one time that reducing what we personally need to be concerned about is a pretty valid strategy.
    - noduerme 2y ago
      I'm not saying one should spend one's life planning for nuclear war, H5N1 and a zombie apocalypse. Filter out first what rises to your threshold of concern. But as with a codebase that you know might have vulnerabilities: Consider what those might be, and start to prepare for them proactively. Just saying fuckit is neither useful nor a good look. Unit test your life.
  - memen 2y ago
    > Have you run a model on how many mutations are required for sustained transfer? (I have). Interesting! Can you share some reads on that?
    - noduerme 2y ago
      So, consider this a starting point... https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/30/3/23-1098_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/30/3/23-1098_article https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3922066/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3922066/ Influenza A mutation rates: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/110197v1 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/110197v1 My models are damn simple, though. It doesn't matter if you need 6 or 12 mutations. (Or it only really changes the kickoff by a few weeks at most). It doesn't matter if those incubate in 1 million or 6 million human/pigs/cattle. The times begin to converge in a very short range. What we do know is that it took about six months to develop a dozen mutations to go from birds to dairy cattle, and it took 4 months to detect that, in March. Any way you model it we have between 2 weeks and 2 months. Before humans start coughing it at each other and dying like masses of sea lions already did.
  - Ancapistani 2y ago
    Nope. Even if I had the ability to do so, what good would it do me? What good would it do anyone? There’s literally no way I would be able to impact its mutation rate. I’m going to keep writing software and raising my family.
    - nonstandarduser 2y ago
      There IS nothing we can do about it. It seems likely that we will see some form of outbreak in humans. The severity is an unknown. What we can do is have a plan to deal with it as best as we can. Keep some extra supplies and medications to last for a few weeks if it gets risky to go outside. I'm not going down a list as everyone's situation is different, but most reasonable steps you can take are pretty cheap and easy to do in the here and now, before panic buying and price gouging start. The WHO seems concerned. https://www.who.int/news/item/12-07-2023-ongoing-avian-influenza-outbreaks-in-animals-pose-risk-to-humans https://www.who.int/news/item/12-07-2023-ongoing-avian-influ...

pedalpete 2y ago

"had multiple underlying medical conditions and had been bedridden for three weeks, for other reasons, prior to the onset of acute symptoms" I don't see a quote from the WHO that says this person died of bird flu, just that this person who was already very very ill was tested after they died and it was found they had bird flu.

JackeJR 2y ago
The claim may just be a result of how cause of death is determined.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
zerocrates 2y ago
Here's WHO's statement: https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON520 https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2... They do call it "a confirmed fatal case of human infection with avian influenza A(H5N2) virus" though the report focuses more on it being the first confirmed human case at all than the fact that the person died.
deadbolt 2y ago
I'm wondering how they could have contracted bird flu while being bedridden for three weeks...
- MrDresden 2y ago
  Raw dairy products come to mind as a possibility.
  - Steven420 2y ago
    Chicken milk?
    - pedalpete 2y ago

susiecambria 2y ago

Here's more information: Avian Influenza A (H5N2) - Mexico (WHO, June 5, 2024) https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON520 https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2...

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

noduerme 2y ago

Can we talk for a moment about the beef supply? Bird flu has now been found in both meat and dairy. The only guidance given so far by CDC is to cook meat to 160 deg. Well done. Let's put aside for a moment what that means about rare steaks... What about the millions of workers who cook burgers and handle large amounts of raw meat on a daily basis, then rub their eyes or noses? These are probably thousands of daily opportunities for the virus to jump species and attack human lung cells. Compared to the chances of infection followed by human-to-human mutation in a small rural community where someone is exposed to sick birds and becomes a dead-end case, we are entering territory where the odds of that deadly mutation are orders of magnitude higher, and compounding daily. I said a month ago that June 15th will be day zero for this to enter public consciousness with a sustained human chain of transmission and high mortality. I'm still standing by that date give or take a week.

ssl-3 2y ago
> Can we talk for a moment about the beef supply? Bird flu has now been found in both meat and dairy. The only guidance given so far by CDC is to cook meat to 160 deg. Well done. Let's put aside for a moment what that means about rare steaks... We can start by talking about the fact that there seems to be no specific guidance from the CDC or USDA that suggests cooking steaks to 160F is necessary to kill bird flu, or that generally suggests this practice of cooking steaks to well-done. In fact, a report on a very recent USDA FSIS study states the following about some intentionally-inoculated ground beef patties: "There was no virus present in the burgers cooked to 145 (medium) or 160 (well done) degrees, which is FSIS’ recommended cooking temperature. Even cooking burgers to 120 (rare) degrees, which is well below the recommended temperature, substantially inactivated the virus." https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/livestock/h5n1-beef-safety-studies https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/a... > What about the millions of workers who cook burgers and handle large amounts of raw meat on a daily basis, then rub their eyes or noses? These are probably thousands of daily opportunities for the virus to jump species and attack human lung cells. I'm just gonna leave this here: https://www.osha.gov/meatpacking/hazards-solutions https://www.osha.gov/meatpacking/hazards-solutions
- 2y ago

bombi 2y ago

[flagged]

dayjaby 2y ago
4kg apples a day keeps the doctor away.
noduerme 2y ago
uh from someone with a family history of overloading on vitamin C and getting kidney stones: DO NOT FOLLOW THIS ADVICE. And no, 5g of vitamin C a day as my dad did for years does not ward off viruses but it does put you in a hospital with your dick in a plastic jar while you howl until the stone passes.

znpy 2y ago

Oh shit here we go again

alexk307 2y ago

Where did H5N2 come from? Isn't all the current alarm/spread coming from H5N1?

greazy 2y ago
It's a virus present in wild bird population. There are many more flu viruses in avians than there are in humans. They periodically make the jump into humans causing disease

salemh 2y ago

[dead]

nonstandarduser 2y ago

Yes, but it's a right fine petri dish we've got going here. Seems like Avian Flu likes mammals and rodents too, and it's not particular about which ones it hangs out in either. https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/mammals https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/a... I'm not sure why the Telegraph got all bent out of shape over a few mice in New Mexico. If you scroll down and look at the table provided in the link above you will see that 17 domestic cats in 8 different states have tested positive, 17 cases in raccoons in various states, Over 90 cases in red foxes, around 40 cases in skunks, and 6 cases reported in possums, and many others. So it spreads to any carnivorous or omnivorous mammal that feeds on birds, birds' eggs or scavenges their carrion. As well as a some that are probably getting it transmitted by some secondary means, such as contact with feces, eating another infected mammal or rodent, drinking cow's milk, etc. It does not appear that it is spreading from species member to species member, except maybe for the red fox? A lot of this data is from 2022 and 2023. Not sure if they are no longer detecting it, or no longer testing a given species. You can read at the top of the page that there is no systematic testing of wild mammals, and that they are getting this ad hoc from "reporting agencies". I thought this link might also be useful: https://www.who.int/news/item/12-07-2023-ongoing-avian-influenza-outbreaks-in-animals-pose-risk-to-humans https://www.who.int/news/item/12-07-2023-ongoing-avian-influ...