3 ms·

I'm getting very weary of reading this analogy, especially when it's given no thought whatsoever. Did you know? Every gold rush in history has ended. If you h

I'm getting very weary of reading this analogy, especially when it's given no thought whatsoever. Did you know? Every gold rush in history has ended. If you have a shovel factory that burns millions of dollars a day to sell as many shovels as you can, and you're not prepared for people to give up on digging for gold, you're going to very suddenly start burning your profits.

chucke1992 2y ago
The main threat to Nvidia is the fact that big clients might start producing their own chips (like Apple is doing and MSFT has started). And they will start offering them to their users who is now leveraging Nvidia's solutions. And AMD and Intel might wake up from coma too. Though Nvidia is trying to pivot towards more cloud and software solutions. Let's see.
- Sohcahtoa82 2y ago
  > The main threat to Nvidia is the fact that big clients might start producing their own chips (like Apple is doing and MSFT has started). What shovels are Apple and MSFT buying to make their own chips? I mean, who is making Apple's and MSFT's AI chips? I'd buy their stock.
  - chucke1992 2y ago
    Apple is using TMSC and MSFT is building fabs with Intel (not sure if they are using TMSC).
talldayo 2y ago
I don't think many people, Nvidia shareholders included, expect this to last forever. But you make hay when the sun is shining; if VCs will pay hand-over-fist for AI-native products, then you better damn-well make sure they can buy the most expensive solutions. If they're looking for gold, you build them gaudy excavators to work in. That being said, Nvidia is particularly well positioned to continue reaping the reward of serving the high-performance-compute market. CUDA is yet-unparalleled, and NPUs/TPUs are still struggling to make a case for themselves. If we get another cryptocurrency-style bum-rush on number crunching computers, I don't think anyone except Nvidia will be poised to immediately benefit. General-purpose GPU compute is in short supply on consumer systems, everyone wants the cloud and the cloud wants Nvidia.
paulmd 2y ago
Well, people don’t like the “other” analogy - the “iPhone gold rush” basically never ended. https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/7800.jpeg https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/7800.jpeg When you invent a whole new class of device, of which you have the best and market-leading implementation, often that class device isn’t going to stop being useful, and if you are good at your job then you often won’t have to relinquish having a large share of the resulting market. There’s really a whole little epistemological bubble that’s forming here, with the people who insist that everyone else must only like it because they think it’s general AI, therefore there must be a collapse coming, because it’s impossible there’s any real value delivered, etc. And the alternative hypothesis is… you’re wrong and there’s something here, and people don’t particularly have blinders on about the potential anymore than you do, they just see the value where you don’t. It’s the same group of people who were butthurt about IP infringement and deepfakes and all the rest who are the most absolutely sure everyone else is an idiot who believes it’s general AI and it’s all a big bubble that’s going to come crashing down. It’s become an article of faith that’s stronger and more real than the fake sentiments it purports to oppose. https://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/28/books/28conserv.html?_r=0 https://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/28/books/28conserv.html?_r=0

chucke1992 2y ago

The main threat to Nvidia is the fact that big clients might start producing their own chips (like Apple is doing and MSFT has started). And they will start offering them to their users who is now leveraging Nvidia's solutions. And AMD and Intel might wake up from coma too. Though Nvidia is trying to pivot towards more cloud and software solutions. Let's see.

Sohcahtoa82 2y ago
> The main threat to Nvidia is the fact that big clients might start producing their own chips (like Apple is doing and MSFT has started). What shovels are Apple and MSFT buying to make their own chips? I mean, who is making Apple's and MSFT's AI chips? I'd buy their stock.
- chucke1992 2y ago
  Apple is using TMSC and MSFT is building fabs with Intel (not sure if they are using TMSC).

talldayo 2y ago

I don't think many people, Nvidia shareholders included, expect this to last forever. But you make hay when the sun is shining; if VCs will pay hand-over-fist for AI-native products, then you better damn-well make sure they can buy the most expensive solutions. If they're looking for gold, you build them gaudy excavators to work in. That being said, Nvidia is particularly well positioned to continue reaping the reward of serving the high-performance-compute market. CUDA is yet-unparalleled, and NPUs/TPUs are still struggling to make a case for themselves. If we get another cryptocurrency-style bum-rush on number crunching computers, I don't think anyone except Nvidia will be poised to immediately benefit. General-purpose GPU compute is in short supply on consumer systems, everyone wants the cloud and the cloud wants Nvidia.

paulmd 2y ago

Well, people don’t like the “other” analogy - the “iPhone gold rush” basically never ended. https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/7800.jpeg https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/7800.jpeg When you invent a whole new class of device, of which you have the best and market-leading implementation, often that class device isn’t going to stop being useful, and if you are good at your job then you often won’t have to relinquish having a large share of the resulting market. There’s really a whole little epistemological bubble that’s forming here, with the people who insist that everyone else must only like it because they think it’s general AI, therefore there must be a collapse coming, because it’s impossible there’s any real value delivered, etc. And the alternative hypothesis is… you’re wrong and there’s something here, and people don’t particularly have blinders on about the potential anymore than you do, they just see the value where you don’t. It’s the same group of people who were butthurt about IP infringement and deepfakes and all the rest who are the most absolutely sure everyone else is an idiot who believes it’s general AI and it’s all a big bubble that’s going to come crashing down. It’s become an article of faith that’s stronger and more real than the fake sentiments it purports to oppose. https://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/28/books/28conserv.html?_r=0 https://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/28/books/28conserv.html?_r=0