Given that the weather models are working on grid sizes 5km and up [1], and we often only get a report for a rough location like a whole city, meaning the predi

Given that the weather models are working on grid sizes 5km and up [1], and we often only get a report for a rough location like a whole city, meaning the prediction needs to be valid for 10s of square km, while our own personal observation range is often just a couple hundred square meters, I am not surprised that my personal sampling of a small area does not match the averaged prediction for a much larger area. But, having said that, temperature predictions seem to be fairly ok up to a week out. Rain is something else, but since we got our dog, I don't care any longer so much. I need to go out anyway ;-) And then I just take a look at the actual rain-radar data for my location to check the actual situation and the outlook for the next hour or so. [1] "the gridboxes in weather and climate models have sides that are between 5 kilometers (3 mi) and 300 kilometers (200 mi) in length" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_weather_prediction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_weather_prediction