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There are claims that Nvidia will go bust like how Cisco did, but I think Jensen Huang knows what he is doing. https://x.com/all_in_tok/status/1796602545055342

There are claims that Nvidia will go bust like how Cisco did, but I think Jensen Huang knows what he is doing. https://x.com/all_in_tok/status/1796602545055342784 https://x.com/all_in_tok/status/1796602545055342784

rwmj 2y ago
He's selling shovels in a gold rush, which is a solid plan.
- digging 2y ago
  I'm getting very weary of reading this analogy, especially when it's given no thought whatsoever. Did you know? Every gold rush in history has ended. If you have a shovel factory that burns millions of dollars a day to sell as many shovels as you can, and you're not prepared for people to give up on digging for gold, you're going to very suddenly start burning your profits.
  - chucke1992 2y ago
    The main threat to Nvidia is the fact that big clients might start producing their own chips (like Apple is doing and MSFT has started). And they will start offering them to their users who is now leveraging Nvidia's solutions. And AMD and Intel might wake up from coma too. Though Nvidia is trying to pivot towards more cloud and software solutions. Let's see.
    - Sohcahtoa82 2y ago
      > The main threat to Nvidia is the fact that big clients might start producing their own chips (like Apple is doing and MSFT has started). What shovels are Apple and MSFT buying to make their own chips? I mean, who is making Apple's and MSFT's AI chips? I'd buy their stock.
      - chucke1992 2y ago
        Apple is using TMSC and MSFT is building fabs with Intel (not sure if they are using TMSC).
  - talldayo 2y ago
    I don't think many people, Nvidia shareholders included, expect this to last forever. But you make hay when the sun is shining; if VCs will pay hand-over-fist for AI-native products, then you better damn-well make sure they can buy the most expensive solutions. If they're looking for gold, you build them gaudy excavators to work in. That being said, Nvidia is particularly well positioned to continue reaping the reward of serving the high-performance-compute market. CUDA is yet-unparalleled, and NPUs/TPUs are still struggling to make a case for themselves. If we get another cryptocurrency-style bum-rush on number crunching computers, I don't think anyone except Nvidia will be poised to immediately benefit. General-purpose GPU compute is in short supply on consumer systems, everyone wants the cloud and the cloud wants Nvidia.
  - paulmd 2y ago
    Well, people don’t like the “other” analogy - the “iPhone gold rush” basically never ended. https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/7800.jpeg https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/7800.jpeg When you invent a whole new class of device, of which you have the best and market-leading implementation, often that class device isn’t going to stop being useful, and if you are good at your job then you often won’t have to relinquish having a large share of the resulting market. There’s really a whole little epistemological bubble that’s forming here, with the people who insist that everyone else must only like it because they think it’s general AI, therefore there must be a collapse coming, because it’s impossible there’s any real value delivered, etc. And the alternative hypothesis is… you’re wrong and there’s something here, and people don’t particularly have blinders on about the potential anymore than you do, they just see the value where you don’t. It’s the same group of people who were butthurt about IP infringement and deepfakes and all the rest who are the most absolutely sure everyone else is an idiot who believes it’s general AI and it’s all a big bubble that’s going to come crashing down. It’s become an article of faith that’s stronger and more real than the fake sentiments it purports to oppose. https://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/28/books/28conserv.html?_r=0 https://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/28/books/28conserv.html?_r=0
pastor_bob 2y ago
David Sacks is not an expert on gpu architecture.
- returnInfinity 2y ago
  But anyone can see nVidia is ahead in GPU & software stack. They are 1 step ahead and that is all is necessary.
DeRock 2y ago
Terrible analysis. He claims that Cisco lost all its value because their HW was commoditized. I mean in some ways, sure, but the fall in value was almost entirely driven by the DOTCOM bubble bursting. There is also a claim that networking equipment is easy, "it's just moving data around". Moving data around is what a computer does. LLM's and GPU's are just moving data around.

rwmj 2y ago

He's selling shovels in a gold rush, which is a solid plan.

digging 2y ago
I'm getting very weary of reading this analogy, especially when it's given no thought whatsoever. Did you know? Every gold rush in history has ended. If you have a shovel factory that burns millions of dollars a day to sell as many shovels as you can, and you're not prepared for people to give up on digging for gold, you're going to very suddenly start burning your profits.
- chucke1992 2y ago
  The main threat to Nvidia is the fact that big clients might start producing their own chips (like Apple is doing and MSFT has started). And they will start offering them to their users who is now leveraging Nvidia's solutions. And AMD and Intel might wake up from coma too. Though Nvidia is trying to pivot towards more cloud and software solutions. Let's see.
  - Sohcahtoa82 2y ago
    > The main threat to Nvidia is the fact that big clients might start producing their own chips (like Apple is doing and MSFT has started). What shovels are Apple and MSFT buying to make their own chips? I mean, who is making Apple's and MSFT's AI chips? I'd buy their stock.
    - chucke1992 2y ago
      Apple is using TMSC and MSFT is building fabs with Intel (not sure if they are using TMSC).
- talldayo 2y ago
  I don't think many people, Nvidia shareholders included, expect this to last forever. But you make hay when the sun is shining; if VCs will pay hand-over-fist for AI-native products, then you better damn-well make sure they can buy the most expensive solutions. If they're looking for gold, you build them gaudy excavators to work in. That being said, Nvidia is particularly well positioned to continue reaping the reward of serving the high-performance-compute market. CUDA is yet-unparalleled, and NPUs/TPUs are still struggling to make a case for themselves. If we get another cryptocurrency-style bum-rush on number crunching computers, I don't think anyone except Nvidia will be poised to immediately benefit. General-purpose GPU compute is in short supply on consumer systems, everyone wants the cloud and the cloud wants Nvidia.
- paulmd 2y ago
  Well, people don’t like the “other” analogy - the “iPhone gold rush” basically never ended. https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/7800.jpeg https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/7800.jpeg When you invent a whole new class of device, of which you have the best and market-leading implementation, often that class device isn’t going to stop being useful, and if you are good at your job then you often won’t have to relinquish having a large share of the resulting market. There’s really a whole little epistemological bubble that’s forming here, with the people who insist that everyone else must only like it because they think it’s general AI, therefore there must be a collapse coming, because it’s impossible there’s any real value delivered, etc. And the alternative hypothesis is… you’re wrong and there’s something here, and people don’t particularly have blinders on about the potential anymore than you do, they just see the value where you don’t. It’s the same group of people who were butthurt about IP infringement and deepfakes and all the rest who are the most absolutely sure everyone else is an idiot who believes it’s general AI and it’s all a big bubble that’s going to come crashing down. It’s become an article of faith that’s stronger and more real than the fake sentiments it purports to oppose. https://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/28/books/28conserv.html?_r=0 https://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/28/books/28conserv.html?_r=0

pastor_bob 2y ago

David Sacks is not an expert on gpu architecture.

returnInfinity 2y ago
But anyone can see nVidia is ahead in GPU & software stack. They are 1 step ahead and that is all is necessary.

DeRock 2y ago

Terrible analysis. He claims that Cisco lost all its value because their HW was commoditized. I mean in some ways, sure, but the fall in value was almost entirely driven by the DOTCOM bubble bursting. There is also a claim that networking equipment is easy, "it's just moving data around". Moving data around is what a computer does. LLM's and GPU's are just moving data around.