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It doesn’t start off convincing though. His premise is that since 2018-2024 follows exponential growth, 2024 onward will. Contrast with Yann’s oft repeated mant
by ml-anon 2y ago
It doesn’t start off convincing though. His premise is that since 2018-2024 follows exponential growth, 2024 onward will. Contrast with Yann’s oft repeated mantra that what looks like exponential growth is more likely the beginning of a sigmoid.
That’s the difference between someone with 3+ decades in the field of AI research vs someone with barely 2 decades on earth.
- nopromisessir 2y agoThis is a fair critism. However, I don't think it matters much, to the overall argument he makes. Why? We don't need AGI to see massive geopolitical disruption. We are already seeing this. The US has put up a GPU wall around China. That is evidence enough. The capability we have already is enough to greatly upset the balance of power in a variety of spheres... Both sides lag in implementation. The capability is alresdy there. Capability will grow. AGI is not relevant to the concern for security. We've past that point already. The labs are a key NAT security asset. They just are privately owned/operated... For now. This is the way of things. History shows this.