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Money is an abstract concept. Net Debt of this planet is Zero. If there is ROI for $100 Trillion, we (banks) will print $100 Trillion by a click of a button

Money is an abstract concept. Net Debt of this planet is Zero. If there is ROI for $100 Trillion, we (banks) will print $100 Trillion by a click of a button Thought Experiment. If by a magic wand the world's productivity doubles overnight. How much extra money needs to be printed to maintain price levels? Ding, Ding, Ding.... $100 Trillion (yes, there is velocity of money and stuff). But, if a project has positive NPV, we can print money (and it's the right thing to do). The worst investors are people who don't get this simple concept and are scared by Debt and Inflation

AnimalMuppet 2y ago
> If there is ROI for $100 Trillion, we (banks) will print $100 Trillion by a click of a button And that will create exactly zero new hardware! All it will do is create twice as much money, so everything will now cost twice as much. As you say, money is an abstract concept. So don't think about money except as a measuring stick for stuff. Is there enough hardware for a cluster that measures at $100 trillion? No, there isn't. There won't be four years from now, or eight years from now. There's not enough hardware. Printing an additional $100 trillion changes the length of the measuring stick, but it doesn't give us any more hardware.
- Andrew_nenakhov 2y ago
  > Printing an additional $100 trillion changes the length of the measuring stick, but it doesn't give us any more hardware. It actually does. Spending freshly conjured money on hardware immediately kicks off production of new hardware and loads all the supply chain. Yes, this injection of new money into economy does eventually result in the inflation, but that will increase the costs of everything later. This lag between when you start spending and the adverse effects of inflation when the money will trickle down everywhere is the period when you actually gain from issuing new money, and the greater the economy is, the longer this lag will be.
  - zooq_ai 2y ago
    Also, inflation is not guaranteed at all. Let's say this hardware results in robots, which can produce near infinite amount of goods and services. That immediately puts downward pressure on prices. Not all printing money results in inflation. If you print money just about the same rate of productivity gain, you will not get inflation at all
- zooq_ai 2y ago
  Nope, you have a fundamental misunderstanding of economics. Thought Experiment : Let's say the world unemployment is 25% and we can build a magical nuclear reactor that produces near infinite clean energy, but it costs $50 Trillion to build. Are you going to wait for the world to save $50 Trillion (which may take 50 years) to build this reactor or are you going to print $50 Trillion give those 25% jobs in creating the nuclear reactor? The only precious commodity in the universe is time. If you don't print $50 T, you are wasting the time of 25% unemployed people.
  - AnimalMuppet 2y ago
    We don't have 25% unemployment among those able to build AI hardware. We don't have 25% unemployment among those able to grow pure silicon crystals, or able to create semiconductor fabs. There are actual capacity constraints. You're not going to change them very much by printing a ton of money.
    - zooq_ai 2y ago
      If you print money and give it to trainers / mentors so that they can scale themselves to train more people for relevant skills. Even in US, labor participation is 62%. So we have 38% slack. Now, think about India, Africa were able bodied and smart people don't have opportunities to use their body/mind and a significant portion. Like I said, your understanding of economics is still basic. tl;dr -- Unless all 8 Billion people are at peak productive capacity, there is always slack and wherever there is slack printing money (with the right incentives) is an easy solution
      - AnimalMuppet 2y ago
        Well, I don't think much of your understanding of economics either. 62% labor participation rate is massively different from 38% slack. Not all of those 38% are available to work. Far from it. We might have 5% slack. Pessimistically, 3%. So back to the original point: No, we can't produce all that hardware, even if your vision of the payback is real. Now, if it's not real, then you just upended the entire economy, caused inflation, wasted a huge amount of resources and time, all to chase an illusion. Look, I know you believe the payoff is there. I don't. In reality, the probability has to be something less than 100% (and something more than 0%). And politically, nobody cares what either you nor I think. They only care what the population as a whole thinks, and the population as a whole does not thing that we should harness the entire global economy to chase this. So in practice, you're left with what a company can do. And, to return to my point several comments ago, a company can't do a $100 trillion cluster, and won't be able to.

AnimalMuppet 2y ago

> If there is ROI for $100 Trillion, we (banks) will print $100 Trillion by a click of a button And that will create exactly zero new hardware! All it will do is create twice as much money, so everything will now cost twice as much. As you say, money is an abstract concept. So don't think about money except as a measuring stick for stuff. Is there enough hardware for a cluster that measures at $100 trillion? No, there isn't. There won't be four years from now, or eight years from now. There's not enough hardware. Printing an additional $100 trillion changes the length of the measuring stick, but it doesn't give us any more hardware.

Andrew_nenakhov 2y ago
> Printing an additional $100 trillion changes the length of the measuring stick, but it doesn't give us any more hardware. It actually does. Spending freshly conjured money on hardware immediately kicks off production of new hardware and loads all the supply chain. Yes, this injection of new money into economy does eventually result in the inflation, but that will increase the costs of everything later. This lag between when you start spending and the adverse effects of inflation when the money will trickle down everywhere is the period when you actually gain from issuing new money, and the greater the economy is, the longer this lag will be.
- zooq_ai 2y ago
  Also, inflation is not guaranteed at all. Let's say this hardware results in robots, which can produce near infinite amount of goods and services. That immediately puts downward pressure on prices. Not all printing money results in inflation. If you print money just about the same rate of productivity gain, you will not get inflation at all
zooq_ai 2y ago
Nope, you have a fundamental misunderstanding of economics. Thought Experiment : Let's say the world unemployment is 25% and we can build a magical nuclear reactor that produces near infinite clean energy, but it costs $50 Trillion to build. Are you going to wait for the world to save $50 Trillion (which may take 50 years) to build this reactor or are you going to print $50 Trillion give those 25% jobs in creating the nuclear reactor? The only precious commodity in the universe is time. If you don't print $50 T, you are wasting the time of 25% unemployed people.
- AnimalMuppet 2y ago
  We don't have 25% unemployment among those able to build AI hardware. We don't have 25% unemployment among those able to grow pure silicon crystals, or able to create semiconductor fabs. There are actual capacity constraints. You're not going to change them very much by printing a ton of money.
  - zooq_ai 2y ago
    If you print money and give it to trainers / mentors so that they can scale themselves to train more people for relevant skills. Even in US, labor participation is 62%. So we have 38% slack. Now, think about India, Africa were able bodied and smart people don't have opportunities to use their body/mind and a significant portion. Like I said, your understanding of economics is still basic. tl;dr -- Unless all 8 Billion people are at peak productive capacity, there is always slack and wherever there is slack printing money (with the right incentives) is an easy solution
    - AnimalMuppet 2y ago
      Well, I don't think much of your understanding of economics either. 62% labor participation rate is massively different from 38% slack. Not all of those 38% are available to work. Far from it. We might have 5% slack. Pessimistically, 3%. So back to the original point: No, we can't produce all that hardware, even if your vision of the payback is real. Now, if it's not real, then you just upended the entire economy, caused inflation, wasted a huge amount of resources and time, all to chase an illusion. Look, I know you believe the payoff is there. I don't. In reality, the probability has to be something less than 100% (and something more than 0%). And politically, nobody cares what either you nor I think. They only care what the population as a whole thinks, and the population as a whole does not thing that we should harness the entire global economy to chase this. So in practice, you're left with what a company can do. And, to return to my point several comments ago, a company can't do a $100 trillion cluster, and won't be able to.