4 ms·

CO2 levels are increasing at ~3ppm/year*. In 40 years we're looking at roughly 120ppm. Noticeable but not "we're all going to have headaches and covid" numbers.

by gpm 2y ago

CO2 levels are increasing at ~3ppm/year*. In 40 years we're looking at roughly 120ppm. Noticeable but not "we're all going to have headaches and covid" numbers. I mean we might all have headaches and covid, but not directly because of CO2 at outdoor concentrations. * 2.8ppm in 2022-2023, the rate at which CO2 is increasing is very slowly increasing but it's close enough to constant for rough calculations, especially after rounding up to 3.

genman 2y ago
The rate is increasing, it is not constant. It used to be 1ppm per year. So it will be not 120ppm extra, it will be more. It might appear not much but when you consider indoor air then when currently room stayed below the recommended CO2 limit, it maybe now be above of it or you need more air changes that will require more energy (to move air and to condition it). And while 120ppm in 40 years might appear not a lot then you should also consider that 40 years is actually very short time - in 120 years it will be about twice as today - there would be no fresh air anymore.
- aeternum 2y ago
  Earth CO2 concentrations during the Triassic were 6000ppm.
  - seadan83 2y ago
    Perhaps not that high. Regardless, entering that period was marked by a mass extinction.* This source [0] states it well: "The end-Permian mass extinction, the largest biological crisis in Earth history, is currently understood in the context of Siberian Traps volcanism introducing large quantities of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, culminating in the Early Triassic hothouse. In our study, the late Permian and Early Triassic atmospheric CO2 history was reconstructed by applying the paleosol pCO2 barometer. Atmospheric pCO2 shows an approximate 4× increase from mean concentrations of 412–919 ppmv in the late Permian (Changhsingian) to maximum levels between 2181 and 2610 ppmv in the Early Triassic (late Griesbachian)." [0] https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article/50/6/650/612995/Five-million-years-of-high-atmospheric-CO2-in-the https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article/50/6/65... * looks like we can quibble on 2k ppm or 5k ppm, the salient part is the global mass extinction part. Whether that was a correlation or caused by CO2 is not defined, at any rate it is not really speaking to a very habitable earth for humans.
- shiroiushi 2y ago
  So it sounds like the climate change problem will be solved before too long, if the rate continues to increase. According to another post above, CO2 levels above 40,000 ppm are "immediately harmful" (I read that as lethal), while levels above 5,000 cause oxygen deprivation. So, when there's too much CO2 in the atmosphere because stupid humans refuse to stop driving giant SUVs, the air itself will prevent humans from even functioning mentally, human society will collapse, and the human population will quickly fall.
  - seadan83 2y ago
    Society would be greatly impacted at far lower levels (anywhere from really current levels and up). See my other reply to peer comment. Though... 40k ppm is talking extinction of all mammals, probably more. The greenhouse effect at that level is probably insane, I wonder if we might lose liquid water well before that point.
seadan83 2y ago
At 1300 ppm strato-cumulus clouds can no longer form. [0] Losing those is a +8C temperature increase alone. [0] At that approx +3ppm/yr, it would be about 300 years before we are there. Which is about 10 human generations, which is roughly the grandchildren of your grandchildren's grandchildren. At +8 on top of wherever the temp is then, my understanding is that is effectively talking runaway greenhouse effect and a hothouse earth. To make it more grim, the ocean has been acting as a carbon dioxide and heat sponge, and is possibly getting saturated. The rate of human emission increases is only starting to level (still increasing though [going from recollection, please correct me if wrong]). And to make things even more grim, that is still not counting other feedback loops like permafrost melting and boreal forests burning. [0] https://www.sciencealert.com/high-levels-of-co2-could-stop-these-cooling-clouds-from-forming-warn-scientists https://www.sciencealert.com/high-levels-of-co2-could-stop-t...

by gpm 2y ago

genman 2y ago

The rate is increasing, it is not constant. It used to be 1ppm per year. So it will be not 120ppm extra, it will be more. It might appear not much but when you consider indoor air then when currently room stayed below the recommended CO2 limit, it maybe now be above of it or you need more air changes that will require more energy (to move air and to condition it). And while 120ppm in 40 years might appear not a lot then you should also consider that 40 years is actually very short time - in 120 years it will be about twice as today - there would be no fresh air anymore.

aeternum 2y ago
Earth CO2 concentrations during the Triassic were 6000ppm.
- seadan83 2y ago
  Perhaps not that high. Regardless, entering that period was marked by a mass extinction.* This source [0] states it well: "The end-Permian mass extinction, the largest biological crisis in Earth history, is currently understood in the context of Siberian Traps volcanism introducing large quantities of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, culminating in the Early Triassic hothouse. In our study, the late Permian and Early Triassic atmospheric CO2 history was reconstructed by applying the paleosol pCO2 barometer. Atmospheric pCO2 shows an approximate 4× increase from mean concentrations of 412–919 ppmv in the late Permian (Changhsingian) to maximum levels between 2181 and 2610 ppmv in the Early Triassic (late Griesbachian)." [0] https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article/50/6/650/612995/Five-million-years-of-high-atmospheric-CO2-in-the https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article/50/6/65... * looks like we can quibble on 2k ppm or 5k ppm, the salient part is the global mass extinction part. Whether that was a correlation or caused by CO2 is not defined, at any rate it is not really speaking to a very habitable earth for humans.
shiroiushi 2y ago
So it sounds like the climate change problem will be solved before too long, if the rate continues to increase. According to another post above, CO2 levels above 40,000 ppm are "immediately harmful" (I read that as lethal), while levels above 5,000 cause oxygen deprivation. So, when there's too much CO2 in the atmosphere because stupid humans refuse to stop driving giant SUVs, the air itself will prevent humans from even functioning mentally, human society will collapse, and the human population will quickly fall.
- seadan83 2y ago
  Society would be greatly impacted at far lower levels (anywhere from really current levels and up). See my other reply to peer comment. Though... 40k ppm is talking extinction of all mammals, probably more. The greenhouse effect at that level is probably insane, I wonder if we might lose liquid water well before that point.

seadan83 2y ago

At 1300 ppm strato-cumulus clouds can no longer form. [0] Losing those is a +8C temperature increase alone. [0] At that approx +3ppm/yr, it would be about 300 years before we are there. Which is about 10 human generations, which is roughly the grandchildren of your grandchildren's grandchildren. At +8 on top of wherever the temp is then, my understanding is that is effectively talking runaway greenhouse effect and a hothouse earth. To make it more grim, the ocean has been acting as a carbon dioxide and heat sponge, and is possibly getting saturated. The rate of human emission increases is only starting to level (still increasing though [going from recollection, please correct me if wrong]). And to make things even more grim, that is still not counting other feedback loops like permafrost melting and boreal forests burning. [0] https://www.sciencealert.com/high-levels-of-co2-could-stop-these-cooling-clouds-from-forming-warn-scientists https://www.sciencealert.com/high-levels-of-co2-could-stop-t...