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If a $100 Trillion Cluster returns $200 Trillion revenues (say, in less than 7 years), there will be $100 Trillion Clusters

AnimalMuppet 2y ago
$100 trillion is the entire world GDP. I don't care how much debt you're willing to take on or how much stock you sell, you're not going to take the entire world output. What percent of world GDP do you think is realistic to capture for this? As a ballpark estimate, I would say 5% - and even that is only realistic if you're the only one trying to do it. But even at that rate, it's going to take 20 years to build it. Well, if it takes 20 years to build it and then you get a return in 7 years, will the money be there to do it? A 27-year return is a lot different from a 7-year return. So, no, there will not be $100 trillion clusters.
- zooq_ai 2y ago
  Money is an abstract concept. Net Debt of this planet is Zero. If there is ROI for $100 Trillion, we (banks) will print $100 Trillion by a click of a button Thought Experiment. If by a magic wand the world's productivity doubles overnight. How much extra money needs to be printed to maintain price levels? Ding, Ding, Ding.... $100 Trillion (yes, there is velocity of money and stuff). But, if a project has positive NPV, we can print money (and it's the right thing to do). The worst investors are people who don't get this simple concept and are scared by Debt and Inflation
  - AnimalMuppet 2y ago
    > If there is ROI for $100 Trillion, we (banks) will print $100 Trillion by a click of a button And that will create exactly zero new hardware! All it will do is create twice as much money, so everything will now cost twice as much. As you say, money is an abstract concept. So don't think about money except as a measuring stick for stuff. Is there enough hardware for a cluster that measures at $100 trillion? No, there isn't. There won't be four years from now, or eight years from now. There's not enough hardware. Printing an additional $100 trillion changes the length of the measuring stick, but it doesn't give us any more hardware.
    - Andrew_nenakhov 2y ago
      > Printing an additional $100 trillion changes the length of the measuring stick, but it doesn't give us any more hardware. It actually does. Spending freshly conjured money on hardware immediately kicks off production of new hardware and loads all the supply chain. Yes, this injection of new money into economy does eventually result in the inflation, but that will increase the costs of everything later. This lag between when you start spending and the adverse effects of inflation when the money will trickle down everywhere is the period when you actually gain from issuing new money, and the greater the economy is, the longer this lag will be.
      - zooq_ai 2y ago
        Also, inflation is not guaranteed at all. Let's say this hardware results in robots, which can produce near infinite amount of goods and services. That immediately puts downward pressure on prices. Not all printing money results in inflation. If you print money just about the same rate of productivity gain, you will not get inflation at all
    - zooq_ai 2y ago
      Nope, you have a fundamental misunderstanding of economics. Thought Experiment : Let's say the world unemployment is 25% and we can build a magical nuclear reactor that produces near infinite clean energy, but it costs $50 Trillion to build. Are you going to wait for the world to save $50 Trillion (which may take 50 years) to build this reactor or are you going to print $50 Trillion give those 25% jobs in creating the nuclear reactor? The only precious commodity in the universe is time. If you don't print $50 T, you are wasting the time of 25% unemployed people.
      - AnimalMuppet 2y ago
        We don't have 25% unemployment among those able to build AI hardware. We don't have 25% unemployment among those able to grow pure silicon crystals, or able to create semiconductor fabs. There are actual capacity constraints. You're not going to change them very much by printing a ton of money.
jen729w 2y ago
The $100T cluster puts us all out of a job. Isn’t that the idea? So who has the money to spend $200T?

AnimalMuppet 2y ago

$100 trillion is the entire world GDP. I don't care how much debt you're willing to take on or how much stock you sell, you're not going to take the entire world output. What percent of world GDP do you think is realistic to capture for this? As a ballpark estimate, I would say 5% - and even that is only realistic if you're the only one trying to do it. But even at that rate, it's going to take 20 years to build it. Well, if it takes 20 years to build it and then you get a return in 7 years, will the money be there to do it? A 27-year return is a lot different from a 7-year return. So, no, there will not be $100 trillion clusters.

zooq_ai 2y ago
Money is an abstract concept. Net Debt of this planet is Zero. If there is ROI for $100 Trillion, we (banks) will print $100 Trillion by a click of a button Thought Experiment. If by a magic wand the world's productivity doubles overnight. How much extra money needs to be printed to maintain price levels? Ding, Ding, Ding.... $100 Trillion (yes, there is velocity of money and stuff). But, if a project has positive NPV, we can print money (and it's the right thing to do). The worst investors are people who don't get this simple concept and are scared by Debt and Inflation
- AnimalMuppet 2y ago
  > If there is ROI for $100 Trillion, we (banks) will print $100 Trillion by a click of a button And that will create exactly zero new hardware! All it will do is create twice as much money, so everything will now cost twice as much. As you say, money is an abstract concept. So don't think about money except as a measuring stick for stuff. Is there enough hardware for a cluster that measures at $100 trillion? No, there isn't. There won't be four years from now, or eight years from now. There's not enough hardware. Printing an additional $100 trillion changes the length of the measuring stick, but it doesn't give us any more hardware.
  - Andrew_nenakhov 2y ago
    > Printing an additional $100 trillion changes the length of the measuring stick, but it doesn't give us any more hardware. It actually does. Spending freshly conjured money on hardware immediately kicks off production of new hardware and loads all the supply chain. Yes, this injection of new money into economy does eventually result in the inflation, but that will increase the costs of everything later. This lag between when you start spending and the adverse effects of inflation when the money will trickle down everywhere is the period when you actually gain from issuing new money, and the greater the economy is, the longer this lag will be.
    - zooq_ai 2y ago
      Also, inflation is not guaranteed at all. Let's say this hardware results in robots, which can produce near infinite amount of goods and services. That immediately puts downward pressure on prices. Not all printing money results in inflation. If you print money just about the same rate of productivity gain, you will not get inflation at all
  - zooq_ai 2y ago
    Nope, you have a fundamental misunderstanding of economics. Thought Experiment : Let's say the world unemployment is 25% and we can build a magical nuclear reactor that produces near infinite clean energy, but it costs $50 Trillion to build. Are you going to wait for the world to save $50 Trillion (which may take 50 years) to build this reactor or are you going to print $50 Trillion give those 25% jobs in creating the nuclear reactor? The only precious commodity in the universe is time. If you don't print $50 T, you are wasting the time of 25% unemployed people.
    - AnimalMuppet 2y ago
      We don't have 25% unemployment among those able to build AI hardware. We don't have 25% unemployment among those able to grow pure silicon crystals, or able to create semiconductor fabs. There are actual capacity constraints. You're not going to change them very much by printing a ton of money.

jen729w 2y ago

The $100T cluster puts us all out of a job. Isn’t that the idea? So who has the money to spend $200T?