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When I bought my house in 2009 people thought I was NUTS. In the thick of the GFC, house prices stagnant. Why would you ever buy a house now?! It has tripled in

When I bought my house in 2009 people thought I was NUTS. In the thick of the GFC, house prices stagnant. Why would you ever buy a house now?! It has tripled in value, and buying a house was by far the best decision I ever made in my life.

tossandthrow 2y ago
In retrospect. I see houses bought in 2006 and sold in 2015 with a loss (in capital cities). The thing is, if you entered the housing market in 2006 you would be set significantly back. If you entered in 2009 you would be at advantage. People are betting on which of these cases we are in now. Anyhow, when people think you are nut for buying, it is probably the right time. Currently the FOMO is real and everybody are recommending me to buy. I take that as an indication of over optimism, which is factored into the price.
- lotsofpulp 2y ago
  > People are betting on which of these cases we are in now. Very, very few US homeowners are betting on profiting from home price changes within 10 years. They are betting on reducing monthly shelter cost volatility, and the freedom to modify their home, by purchasing a home with a very long fixed rate mortgage and maybe selling after a couple decades.
  - jen20 2y ago
    Note that this is not the same worldwide - for example, in the UK mortgages are typically not fixed rate for a long time, and so interest rates are a much more useful tool for the Bank of England to cause economic pain.
    - tossandthrow 2y ago
      cause economic pain -> reduce spending. That is certainly one of the cool things about entering the housing market: Now you are a monetary instrument.
    - WheatMillington 2y ago
      True here in New Zealand too, and across most markets in the world outside the US.
  - tossandthrow 2y ago
    I agree, and I was not precise enough. People will tell different stories about them entering into the housing market based on them entering in 2006 and 2009. Someone loosing 15% equity on a geared investment over 10 years are probably not going to say "buying a house was by far the best decision I ever made in my life".
- WheatMillington 2y ago
  >if you entered the housing market in 2006 you would be set significantly back That's plainly not true where I'm from.

tossandthrow 2y ago

In retrospect. I see houses bought in 2006 and sold in 2015 with a loss (in capital cities). The thing is, if you entered the housing market in 2006 you would be set significantly back. If you entered in 2009 you would be at advantage. People are betting on which of these cases we are in now. Anyhow, when people think you are nut for buying, it is probably the right time. Currently the FOMO is real and everybody are recommending me to buy. I take that as an indication of over optimism, which is factored into the price.

lotsofpulp 2y ago
> People are betting on which of these cases we are in now. Very, very few US homeowners are betting on profiting from home price changes within 10 years. They are betting on reducing monthly shelter cost volatility, and the freedom to modify their home, by purchasing a home with a very long fixed rate mortgage and maybe selling after a couple decades.
- jen20 2y ago
  Note that this is not the same worldwide - for example, in the UK mortgages are typically not fixed rate for a long time, and so interest rates are a much more useful tool for the Bank of England to cause economic pain.
  - tossandthrow 2y ago
    cause economic pain -> reduce spending. That is certainly one of the cool things about entering the housing market: Now you are a monetary instrument.
  - WheatMillington 2y ago
    True here in New Zealand too, and across most markets in the world outside the US.
- tossandthrow 2y ago
  I agree, and I was not precise enough. People will tell different stories about them entering into the housing market based on them entering in 2006 and 2009. Someone loosing 15% equity on a geared investment over 10 years are probably not going to say "buying a house was by far the best decision I ever made in my life".
WheatMillington 2y ago
>if you entered the housing market in 2006 you would be set significantly back That's plainly not true where I'm from.