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To be clear - that 'low level' is 8 million openings which is 4x more than were available post-GFC; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1otVt https://fred.stl

To be clear - that 'low level' is 8 million openings which is 4x more than were available post-GFC; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1otVt https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1otVt and we're still near historically low unemployment rates; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1otVI https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1otVI I know it's trendy to be a doomer these days but sub-4% unemployment rates for over 3 years with high earnings is a pretty good place to be, even if inflation was too high for some of that stretch.

toomuchtodo 2y ago
This is also before the Fed lowers rates, which while not assured in the near term, will happen eventually. Can't fight structural demographics with an imaginary number. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch...
- tossandthrow 2y ago
  Why do you think it will happen inevitably?
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    Metric trajectory Fed relies on to set the benchmark rate. Powell also stated they'd cut on labor market weakness. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-24/fed-s-powell-ready-to-support-job-market-even-if-inflation-lingers https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-24/fed-s-pow... | https://archive.today/YZXrL https://archive.today/YZXrL https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20240320.pdf https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCprescon...
    - tossandthrow 2y ago
      A complete aside: I am wondering what the end game here is. If money are totally reducible to labor, but we just don't need labor anymore? Will we merely go one with negative interest and qe?
    - toomuchtodo 2y ago
      Additional citation: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-04/bond-traders-pile-into-fresh-bets-on-faster-pace-of-fed-cuts https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-04/bond-trad... | https://archive.today/aRElH https://archive.today/aRElH > Bond traders are tilting dovish again, piling into wagers that would benefit from a faster pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts as Treasuries rally. > “The next move that the Fed is going to make is ultimately going to be one that protects the strength of the labor market, rather than one that in which they need to be fighting inflation,” Kelsey Berro, fixed-income portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg Television Tuesday. “We do think that inflation generally is under control.
verdverm 2y ago
Another interesting graph is the %job openings per industry https://www.bls.gov/charts/job-openings-and-labor-turnover/opening-industry.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/job-openings-and-labor-turnover/o...
lowkey 2y ago
Tech job market has certainly collapsed. Two data points: - software engineer job postings are down 70% year/year - product manager job postings are down 90% over the past 2 years on LinkedIn
- mikeyouse 2y ago
  Collapsed is a bit dramatic - not sure where your job posting stats are coming from but this is another area the BLS tracks - down from 2021 but still very healthy considering the extremely low unemployment rate: Jobs: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1oue8 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1oue8 Job openings: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1oudP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1oudP
  - pseudalopex 2y ago
    They said tech job market, software engineers, project managers. Your links were all jobs. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE
    - mikeyouse 2y ago
      All ‘information’ jobs which is a superset for most tech roles. One more data point against the collapse narrative is that we’ve never had so many software developers working in the US: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPUJN5112W200000000 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPUJN5112W200000000
      - pseudalopex 2y ago
        > All ‘information’ jobs which is a superset for most tech roles. I should have been clearer. They made claims about specific jobs. You replied with data about all jobs in a collection of industries. And the collection of industries isn't even limited to what people would call tech companies in fact. > One more data point against the collapse narrative is that we’ve never had so many software developers working in the US: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPUJN5112W200000000 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPUJN5112W200000000 This showed companies classified software publishers employed more people than ever. Your claim could be true. But the chart showed something else.

toomuchtodo 2y ago

This is also before the Fed lowers rates, which while not assured in the near term, will happen eventually. Can't fight structural demographics with an imaginary number. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch...

tossandthrow 2y ago
Why do you think it will happen inevitably?
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  Metric trajectory Fed relies on to set the benchmark rate. Powell also stated they'd cut on labor market weakness. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-24/fed-s-powell-ready-to-support-job-market-even-if-inflation-lingers https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-24/fed-s-pow... | https://archive.today/YZXrL https://archive.today/YZXrL https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20240320.pdf https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCprescon...
  - tossandthrow 2y ago
    A complete aside: I am wondering what the end game here is. If money are totally reducible to labor, but we just don't need labor anymore? Will we merely go one with negative interest and qe?
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    Additional citation: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-04/bond-traders-pile-into-fresh-bets-on-faster-pace-of-fed-cuts https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-04/bond-trad... | https://archive.today/aRElH https://archive.today/aRElH > Bond traders are tilting dovish again, piling into wagers that would benefit from a faster pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts as Treasuries rally. > “The next move that the Fed is going to make is ultimately going to be one that protects the strength of the labor market, rather than one that in which they need to be fighting inflation,” Kelsey Berro, fixed-income portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg Television Tuesday. “We do think that inflation generally is under control.

verdverm 2y ago

Another interesting graph is the %job openings per industry https://www.bls.gov/charts/job-openings-and-labor-turnover/opening-industry.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/job-openings-and-labor-turnover/o...

lowkey 2y ago

Tech job market has certainly collapsed. Two data points: - software engineer job postings are down 70% year/year - product manager job postings are down 90% over the past 2 years on LinkedIn

mikeyouse 2y ago
Collapsed is a bit dramatic - not sure where your job posting stats are coming from but this is another area the BLS tracks - down from 2021 but still very healthy considering the extremely low unemployment rate: Jobs: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1oue8 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1oue8 Job openings: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1oudP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1oudP
- pseudalopex 2y ago
  They said tech job market, software engineers, project managers. Your links were all jobs. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE
  - mikeyouse 2y ago
    All ‘information’ jobs which is a superset for most tech roles. One more data point against the collapse narrative is that we’ve never had so many software developers working in the US: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPUJN5112W200000000 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPUJN5112W200000000
    - pseudalopex 2y ago
      > All ‘information’ jobs which is a superset for most tech roles. I should have been clearer. They made claims about specific jobs. You replied with data about all jobs in a collection of industries. And the collection of industries isn't even limited to what people would call tech companies in fact. > One more data point against the collapse narrative is that we’ve never had so many software developers working in the US: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPUJN5112W200000000 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPUJN5112W200000000 This showed companies classified software publishers employed more people than ever. Your claim could be true. But the chart showed something else.