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> and therefore does not really provide understanding of the underlying process What is “the underlying process”? For example, Newton was able to model gravit

by nico 2y ago

> and therefore does not really provide understanding of the underlying process What is “the underlying process”? For example, Newton was able to model gravity quite successfully without ever being able to “understand the underlying process”. In fact, physics today still doesn’t have a good grasp on what gravity is. Yet we use the models and equations all the time In a way, physics is also a collection of black boxes, perhaps just seemingly more elegant boxes

lainga 2y ago
> What is “the underlying process”? IMO - The simple ones: advection, latent heat release/absorption from water changing phases, and the Coriolis force. If you need an AI for this, please take a course on differential equations. The hard ones: droplet/ice crystal formation, cloud feedback on radiative transfer, evaporation at air-sea boundaries. If you can train a model for these processes, please, please tell someone.
- danielmarkbruce 2y ago
  "what is the underlying process" is another way of saying, all we have is models. We don't really understand anything. Even gravity. Yet, we can model gravity extremely well for practical purposes.
  - nico 2y ago
    Exactly. Taking it further, I don’t understand how my hands work. Yet here I am typing away, without even having a good model for it, except just the language I’m using to describe what I’m doing
SaberTail 2y ago
Gravity can be modeled as "things on the earth's surface accelerate downward at about 10 m/s², regardless of their mass". This works very well. Gravity can be modeled as "planets orbit the sun according to Kepler's laws". This also works very well. Newton realized that these phenomena could be explained as arising from the same underlying process of an inverse square law. This is a much more useful model, and allows predictions that allow us to do things like space flight, even if it is not complete.
jprete 2y ago
Physics wants to open the black boxes until it can no longer figure out how to pry the remaining boxes open! It's not useful to draw a false equivalence between AI-style "the model predicts, that's good enough" and science as a whole which cares very much about the underlying structure.
- nico 2y ago
  Why are you assuming that people want to stop understanding the AI models? If anything, AI researchers are digging deeper into the models too And people in physics are starting to use AI tools to model physical phenomena I think that it’s a never ending task to understand all the black boxes. Definitely not possible by a single person. But also at some level you get to circular references. There is no fixed point in the universe, there is no point 0 or origin that we can find. Everything is relative to something else
  - hierophantical 2y ago
    I mean how can we ever trust a microscope when the human eye can not see at that level of magnification? What if the hammer gets angry and starts hitting us in the head? How can you not see the danger in getting hit in the head by a hammer? This is all just short term noise and no one will ask these stupid questions soon enough. In the meantime, it makes for good theater on podcasts.

by nico 2y ago

lainga 2y ago

> What is “the underlying process”? IMO - The simple ones: advection, latent heat release/absorption from water changing phases, and the Coriolis force. If you need an AI for this, please take a course on differential equations. The hard ones: droplet/ice crystal formation, cloud feedback on radiative transfer, evaporation at air-sea boundaries. If you can train a model for these processes, please, please tell someone.

danielmarkbruce 2y ago
"what is the underlying process" is another way of saying, all we have is models. We don't really understand anything. Even gravity. Yet, we can model gravity extremely well for practical purposes.
- nico 2y ago
  Exactly. Taking it further, I don’t understand how my hands work. Yet here I am typing away, without even having a good model for it, except just the language I’m using to describe what I’m doing

SaberTail 2y ago

Gravity can be modeled as "things on the earth's surface accelerate downward at about 10 m/s², regardless of their mass". This works very well. Gravity can be modeled as "planets orbit the sun according to Kepler's laws". This also works very well. Newton realized that these phenomena could be explained as arising from the same underlying process of an inverse square law. This is a much more useful model, and allows predictions that allow us to do things like space flight, even if it is not complete.

jprete 2y ago

Physics wants to open the black boxes until it can no longer figure out how to pry the remaining boxes open! It's not useful to draw a false equivalence between AI-style "the model predicts, that's good enough" and science as a whole which cares very much about the underlying structure.

nico 2y ago
Why are you assuming that people want to stop understanding the AI models? If anything, AI researchers are digging deeper into the models too And people in physics are starting to use AI tools to model physical phenomena I think that it’s a never ending task to understand all the black boxes. Definitely not possible by a single person. But also at some level you get to circular references. There is no fixed point in the universe, there is no point 0 or origin that we can find. Everything is relative to something else
- hierophantical 2y ago
  I mean how can we ever trust a microscope when the human eye can not see at that level of magnification? What if the hammer gets angry and starts hitting us in the head? How can you not see the danger in getting hit in the head by a hammer? This is all just short term noise and no one will ask these stupid questions soon enough. In the meantime, it makes for good theater on podcasts.