4 ms·

> AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. GPT-2 to GPT-4 took us from ~preschooler to ~smart high-schooler abilities in 4 years. No it's not. GPT-4 is not a "smar

> AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. GPT-2 to GPT-4 took us from ~preschooler to ~smart high-schooler abilities in 4 years. No it's not. GPT-4 is not a "smart high-schooler". This is so hype-y, it's ridiculous. > Over the past year, the talk of the town has shifted from $10 billion compute clusters to $100 billion clusters to trillion-dollar clusters. Talk amongst the memesters. This is a meme. I work in AI, and I'm building an AI animation company. But let's be realistic -- claims like these are not grounded and are going to result in distrust from stakeholders: investors, policy makers, and the general public.

Treesrule14 2y ago
Just to echo what you are saying, I've read the first chapter and I thought the thesis is interesting and the writing is good but I failed to be convinced becuase it makes a lot of classic mistakes you make in science. Even though logical arguments are being made there is no attempt not to overfit the data. The author brings out a lot of stats "smart high-schooler", "effective compute", "OOM", "Test Scores", "inference efficiency" but doesn't do a good job of explaining how the author predicted these things before hand (preregistering) and how they actual will result in new technologies or how we can extrapolate past the trend line. Also in the unhobbling section "Tools: Imagine if humans weren’t allowed to use calculators or computers. We’re only at the beginning here, but ChatGPT can now use a web browser, run some code, and so on. " This is so non-specific (because no one has really commercialized anything with this yet) that I worry that we don't actually know if we can make the kinds of effective tools the author is talking about. Would love some feedback on these critisms
- Treesrule14 2y ago
  also one funny thing is that the author mentions power constraints, but then doesn't calculate how many terraflops for example the us grid can produce etc.
  - zooq_ai 2y ago
    That's where the Trillion $ cluster comes in. It also includes building power plants, not just data centers
  - ml-anon 2y ago
    That’s around the time he says we should build 1200 shale wells in Pennsylvania.
golergka 2y ago
> No it's not. GPT-4 is not a "smart high-schooler". This is so hype-y, it's ridiculous. I'm reading Feynman's lectures on electromagnetism right now, and GPT-4o can answer questions and help me with the math. I doubt that even a smart high school would be able to do it.
johnthewise 2y ago
>Talk amongst the memesters. This is a meme. Those memesters invented and deployed the current systems, are currently training the next, and raising funds for the next after. Some scientific breakthroughs were memes at first, but some people believed in them and proved everyone else wrong. Majority were memes and are still memes. I don't think whether this is a fad or not is that interesting, what's interesting is these 'memesters' who are optimistic about these systems have all the capital, determination and brain. Unlike in other times in history where public needed some convincing, whether through President on Manhattan or with Apollo project, memesters are using their own funds so don't need to convince anyone else.

Treesrule14 2y ago

Just to echo what you are saying, I've read the first chapter and I thought the thesis is interesting and the writing is good but I failed to be convinced becuase it makes a lot of classic mistakes you make in science. Even though logical arguments are being made there is no attempt not to overfit the data. The author brings out a lot of stats "smart high-schooler", "effective compute", "OOM", "Test Scores", "inference efficiency" but doesn't do a good job of explaining how the author predicted these things before hand (preregistering) and how they actual will result in new technologies or how we can extrapolate past the trend line. Also in the unhobbling section "Tools: Imagine if humans weren’t allowed to use calculators or computers. We’re only at the beginning here, but ChatGPT can now use a web browser, run some code, and so on. " This is so non-specific (because no one has really commercialized anything with this yet) that I worry that we don't actually know if we can make the kinds of effective tools the author is talking about. Would love some feedback on these critisms

Treesrule14 2y ago
also one funny thing is that the author mentions power constraints, but then doesn't calculate how many terraflops for example the us grid can produce etc.
- zooq_ai 2y ago
  That's where the Trillion $ cluster comes in. It also includes building power plants, not just data centers
- ml-anon 2y ago
  That’s around the time he says we should build 1200 shale wells in Pennsylvania.

golergka 2y ago

> No it's not. GPT-4 is not a "smart high-schooler". This is so hype-y, it's ridiculous. I'm reading Feynman's lectures on electromagnetism right now, and GPT-4o can answer questions and help me with the math. I doubt that even a smart high school would be able to do it.

johnthewise 2y ago

>Talk amongst the memesters. This is a meme. Those memesters invented and deployed the current systems, are currently training the next, and raising funds for the next after. Some scientific breakthroughs were memes at first, but some people believed in them and proved everyone else wrong. Majority were memes and are still memes. I don't think whether this is a fad or not is that interesting, what's interesting is these 'memesters' who are optimistic about these systems have all the capital, determination and brain. Unlike in other times in history where public needed some convincing, whether through President on Manhattan or with Apollo project, memesters are using their own funds so don't need to convince anyone else.