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"In 2020, the year of the COVID-19 pandemic onset and implementation of containment measures, records present 1 033 122 excess deaths (P-score 11.4%). In 2021,

by brabel 2y ago

"In 2020, the year of the COVID-19 pandemic onset and implementation of containment measures, records present 1 033 122 excess deaths (P-score 11.4%). In 2021, the year in which both containment measures and COVID-19 vaccines were used to address virus spread and infection, the highest number of excess deaths was reported: 1 256 942 excess deaths (P-score 13.8%). In 2022, when most containment measures were lifted and COVID-19 vaccines were continued, preliminary data present 808 392 excess deaths (P-score 8.8%)." I can only read the Abstract, but from the quote above, it may seem that the containment measures had only a limited effect in reducing excess deaths... but wouldn't the number of excess deaths in a hypothetical world where no measures had been taken at all (no masks, no vaccines, no social distancing) be exponentially growing?? Say, it started at 1 million, went to 1.2 million the next year (with some containment measures already in place) and it would probably have gone way higher the next year (but it didn't) if the pattern continued, wouldn't it? I guess eventually it would go back down, but that would probably only have happened when most people who are prone to dying from the virus would've have died already, which probably would take many millions more (ignoring the fact that viruses naturally become less lethal over time, as killing too many hosts is bad for spreading further). So I don't know, given all of these variables I would say 800,000 excess deaths in 2022 is perhaps showing that containment actually did work, just not as well as one would've hoped.

realreality 2y ago
Regarding 2022: > The presented data, especially for 2022, are thus preliminary and subject to backward revisions. The more recent data are usually more incomplete and therefore can undergo upward revisions over time. This implies that several of the reported excess mortality estimates can be underestimations.
The_Colonel 2y ago
> but wouldn't the number of excess deaths in a hypothetical world where no measures had been taken at all To me, a more likely scenario is that the virus would basically run through the world's population during the first year, killing most susceptible quickly. The fact the original was a more deadly strain and the complete overloading of medical care would not help either. > ignoring the fact that viruses naturally become less lethal over time, as killing too many hosts is bad for spreading further This is likely not a strong factor in Covid since it's not enough deadly and there's enough time to spread the virus before dying. A more fitting explanation is the reversion to the mean. Covid-19 was/is an exceptionally deadly strain of coronavirus, it's more likely that its mutations will trend in the direction of mean coronavirus lethality.

by brabel 2y ago

realreality 2y ago

Regarding 2022: > The presented data, especially for 2022, are thus preliminary and subject to backward revisions. The more recent data are usually more incomplete and therefore can undergo upward revisions over time. This implies that several of the reported excess mortality estimates can be underestimations.

The_Colonel 2y ago

> but wouldn't the number of excess deaths in a hypothetical world where no measures had been taken at all To me, a more likely scenario is that the virus would basically run through the world's population during the first year, killing most susceptible quickly. The fact the original was a more deadly strain and the complete overloading of medical care would not help either. > ignoring the fact that viruses naturally become less lethal over time, as killing too many hosts is bad for spreading further This is likely not a strong factor in Covid since it's not enough deadly and there's enough time to spread the virus before dying. A more fitting explanation is the reversion to the mean. Covid-19 was/is an exceptionally deadly strain of coronavirus, it's more likely that its mutations will trend in the direction of mean coronavirus lethality.