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Right. I look at this like a Bayesian Chance of someone - seeing it before: 10% - being a liar: 5% - being the next Claude Shannon: 0.000001% So someone co
by kristopolous 2y ago
Right. I look at this like a Bayesian
Chance of someone
- seeing it before: 10%
- being a liar: 5%
- being the next Claude Shannon: 0.000001%
So someone coming up with the right answer and claiming they've seen it is useless.
Right answer and claiming they hadn't seen it is basically a guaranteed liar.
You can use it to filter out the liars I guess. But you'll also filter out your Claude Shannons as well.
Either way, it's a dumb test unless you're genuinely getting a steady stream of Princeton and Cambridge magna cum laudes waltzing through the door and can reliable bump the last two priors by a few decimal points.