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Not suddenly, it's been widely predicted for this to happen. It's only sudden if you weren't paying attention. If you are, this is right on schedule. There are
by jillesvangurp 2y ago
Not suddenly, it's been widely predicted for this to happen. It's only sudden if you weren't paying attention.
If you are, this is right on schedule. There are more price reductions coming as well. A lot more.
1) a lot of EVs are now being passed on to the second hand market. Most of those are in pretty good shape in terms of battery health, etc. But because there are so many, prices are trending down because they just aren't as scarce any more. And because there now is a second hand market, a lot of first time EV buyers are opting for that.
2) new EVs are getting cheaper to make. This is learning effects that come with scaling up production volumes as well as continued improvements in battery tech. This is not about giving people irrationally large ranges they don't need for their morning coffee run & commute but about getting them lighter, more affordable cars.
3) The high end of the market is getting saturated and more competitive. So, companies are lowering their prices accordingly to stay relevant. Especially those making EVs that weren't that competitive.
4) Additionally, they are now targeting lower price segments with new EVs. This was widely predicted to happen in the 2024-2026 time frame and it seems to indeed have started happening. Production volumes are still low though but growing rapidly. The Chinese are putting a lot of pressure on the market but that too is not unexpected. However inconvenient it may be for manufacturers still lacking good products.
5) Some companies won't make it. There are a few companies that are as of yet without products shipping in volume bleeding market share to an EV market that is rapidly growing. Some may pull some miracles, others will simply fail.
The next step that is playing out 2026-2030 is that of mass commoditization. EV production volumes will go up to cover most of the market and at price ranges where ICE cars simply stop making sense. Mostly those factories are already being built/planned. Investments are secured. This is basically happening.
Beyond that, most of the commercial market will be electric. No exceptions, really. Trucks, vans, lease cars, buses, everything. It will of course take some time for traffic on the roads to reflect that but those driving the most tend to drive newer vehicles and replace them when it's economical. With operational costs being less, that might come sooner rather than later for a lot of aging ICE vehicles.