4 ms·

People also talk about the cost, but that cost will come down, and besides the cost to society from alcoholism and obesity are absolutely staggering.

JamesBarney 2y ago
This really depends how you calculate cost to society. Everyone dies, and the healthiest people die the slowest. So when you look at the cost of the alternatives the difference looks much smaller or non-existant. If the alternative of getting a heart attack at 57 is retiring at 67, collecting social security for 20 years, getting Alzheimers at 73 and spending 10 years in a Medicare funded memory care facility, obesity and alcoholism don't look as expensive.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > really depends how you calculate cost to society Age doesn't cost society, morbidity does [1]. A society of long-lived healthy people is richer than one of the short-lived obese. [1] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37117804/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37117804/
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> the cost to society from alcoholism and obesity To put that into perspective, annual cost of diabetes to America is $1,200 per capita ($1,300 adjusted for inflation [2]. 40% more than a month of Ozempic [3]. One twelfth of Americans have diabetes [4]. If the government could negotiate just a 10% bulk discount, the payback period on buying every American with diabetes Ozempic would be around a year. Even if everyone ceased treatment after that, even if you only did this for a couple years, we'd see a permanent boost in productivity and health across the American population. [1] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37909353/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37909353/ [2] https://www.usinflationcalculator.com https://www.usinflationcalculator.com [3] https://ro.co/weight-loss/ozempic-cost-without-insurance/ https://ro.co/weight-loss/ozempic-cost-without-insurance/ [4] https://www.niddk.nih.gov/health-information/health-statistics/diabetes-statistics https://www.niddk.nih.gov/health-information/health-statisti...
- hnburnsy 2y ago
  Government could build their own plants, these drugs are not under patent, just the drug+delivery mechanism is. This says $5 per month as actual costs. https://www.healthline.com/health-news/how-affordable-could-generic-ozempic-be-as-low-as-5-a-month-study-finds https://www.healthline.com/health-news/how-affordable-could-...
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > these drugs are not under patent "Semaglutide is expected to become patent-free in the United States no earlier than December 2031" [1]. We could probably strike a volume deal for ~$200 for 5 years and then $75 (the upper end of your study’s estimate for manufacturing cost) for another 5. [1] https://www.drugpatentwatch.com/p/tradename/OZEMPIC https://www.drugpatentwatch.com/p/tradename/OZEMPIC
    - hnburnsy 2y ago
      https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/ftc-challenges-patents-held-by-drugmakers-including-for-ozempic.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/ftc-challenges-patents-held-... My understanding is that they are patentening the drug+device and or the dosing, not the molecule. Looks like the FTC is clamping down on it.

JamesBarney 2y ago

This really depends how you calculate cost to society. Everyone dies, and the healthiest people die the slowest. So when you look at the cost of the alternatives the difference looks much smaller or non-existant. If the alternative of getting a heart attack at 57 is retiring at 67, collecting social security for 20 years, getting Alzheimers at 73 and spending 10 years in a Medicare funded memory care facility, obesity and alcoholism don't look as expensive.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> really depends how you calculate cost to society Age doesn't cost society, morbidity does [1]. A society of long-lived healthy people is richer than one of the short-lived obese. [1] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37117804/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37117804/

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> the cost to society from alcoholism and obesity To put that into perspective, annual cost of diabetes to America is $1,200 per capita ($1,300 adjusted for inflation [2]. 40% more than a month of Ozempic [3]. One twelfth of Americans have diabetes [4]. If the government could negotiate just a 10% bulk discount, the payback period on buying every American with diabetes Ozempic would be around a year. Even if everyone ceased treatment after that, even if you only did this for a couple years, we'd see a permanent boost in productivity and health across the American population. [1] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37909353/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37909353/ [2] https://www.usinflationcalculator.com https://www.usinflationcalculator.com [3] https://ro.co/weight-loss/ozempic-cost-without-insurance/ https://ro.co/weight-loss/ozempic-cost-without-insurance/ [4] https://www.niddk.nih.gov/health-information/health-statistics/diabetes-statistics https://www.niddk.nih.gov/health-information/health-statisti...

hnburnsy 2y ago
Government could build their own plants, these drugs are not under patent, just the drug+delivery mechanism is. This says $5 per month as actual costs. https://www.healthline.com/health-news/how-affordable-could-generic-ozempic-be-as-low-as-5-a-month-study-finds https://www.healthline.com/health-news/how-affordable-could-...
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > these drugs are not under patent "Semaglutide is expected to become patent-free in the United States no earlier than December 2031" [1]. We could probably strike a volume deal for ~$200 for 5 years and then $75 (the upper end of your study’s estimate for manufacturing cost) for another 5. [1] https://www.drugpatentwatch.com/p/tradename/OZEMPIC https://www.drugpatentwatch.com/p/tradename/OZEMPIC
  - hnburnsy 2y ago
    https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/ftc-challenges-patents-held-by-drugmakers-including-for-ozempic.html https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/ftc-challenges-patents-held-... My understanding is that they are patentening the drug+device and or the dosing, not the molecule. Looks like the FTC is clamping down on it.