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It’s the best demo-able software today that lets the customers’ minds go wild with the possibilities. But then the nuances of human abilities in commercial set
by dpflan 2y ago
It’s the best demo-able software today that lets the customers’ minds go wild with the possibilities.
But then the nuances of human abilities in commercial settings, like call center, become realities and obstacles that the software can’t surmount. Costs rise, productivity not so much, and then legal gets involved and it’s even more costly.
- belter 2y agoThis is the best description of the current state of affairs. But who is going to risk not invest on what could be another possible major breakthrough in 3 to 5 years? Either from a GPT5 or another source? It's not like all the brainpower that left OpenAI recently, suddenly converted to farming... At least load on NVIDIA options....
- fragmede 2y agoBanks that didn't have FOMO in the run up to 2008 didn't end up in bankrupt from it. Investing from a place of fomo is a bad sign.
- AbstractH24 2y agoA [most] banks that did got bailed out
- drewcoo 2y ago> But who is going to risk not invest on what could be another possible major breakthrough in 3 to 5 years? 3 to 5 years is an awful lot of quarters . . .
- belter 2y agoI like to measure my time in PhD's ...3 to 5 years, means the major breakthrough could be just at a distance of 0.5 PhDs
- tim333 2y agoIt feels a bit like the 1999 dot com bubble. The internet was real but valuations got ahead of the reality.
- dpflan 2y agoThere is a lot of money to be invested these days, 2017 tax breaks and covid stimulus...
- AbstractH24 2y agoThe question is, on call options or put options?
- qp11 2y agoCompounding matters is the fact that it has become really easy to roll out half baked shit at ridiculous scales. The marketing mega machine then uses the Scale to pretend its not half baked shit - "hey man just look at how many people are using it".
- EA-3167 2y agoPlus there's the reality that all of this mediocre capability requires VAST inputs of energy that are totally unsustainable. I've said it here before and will again, AI is just the pivot from crypto that props up NVIDIA prices and lets tech bros speculate on a market that simply will never materialize.
- Teknomancer 2y agoAs somebody who recently used Claude Opus to help quickly and affordably solve complex problems in 3D design work (OpenSCAD) while designing a marketable product, I have my doubts about your analogy. Prior to the availability of affordable and accessible AI, I could have taken some Bitcoin and paid somebody smarter than me to help me with this work, but I guarantee it would have been less economically viable, both in terms of financial cost to me and in terms of energy consumption costs.
- Jensson 2y agoIf you need it to do small standard tasks that normally requires an expert, then these AI can often solve them for you. If however you need an expert to do a longer term project, then these AI can not solve them for you. It does replace some jobs as you say, but most people don't work on short term project consultation so overall it doesn't matter much. > and in terms of energy consumption costs. Did you include the cost of training the model? I'm pretty sure the total investments that goes into AI today way outspend the cost of such small consultation gigs that AI can replace currently. Customer support is the biggest moneymaker so far and even that is hard to do right with customers suing over lies from the AI bots.
- senordevnyc 2y agoWait until you hear how much energy a human worker consumes...
- CuriouslyC 2y agoAI is legit, but you are right that currently it's too expensive and being propped up by investments paid for in compute from cloud providers. We're making rapid progress in bringing the compute requirements of high level models down though, and eventually we'll get over this need to make supermodels and start making distilled models for specific tasks, which will provide the benefits without the drawbacks of all knowing models.