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I work in immigration in Germany. I'm seeing a drop in traffic compared to previous years. People in the immigration industry are noticing a dip in business. My
by nicbou 2y ago
I work in immigration in Germany. I'm seeing a drop in traffic compared to previous years. People in the immigration industry are noticing a dip in business. My guide about losing your job in Germany is now in the top 10 by visits.
Immigrants are the canary in the coal mine. When more people are unemployed, the local talent is already fighting for available jobs, so companies don't hire as much from abroad.
This is based on relatively flimsy evidence, but it's how I currently see things.
- muzani 2y agoAnother canary is finance. Finance is like blood, it distributes resources from one place to another. You don't want it too fast or too slow. When finance starts to lay off lots of people people, it's because people are spending less. When people are spending less, it causes recessions. A very strong metric to watch is interest rates. Most recessions hit when interest rates are 0%. Rates are lowered to encourage growth, but when they're at 0%, the lever is stuck.
- AbstractH24 2y agoRight, but haven’t we been saying some version of this for 3 years now? When the yield curve inverted. Starting to think there won’t be any big broad recession similar to 2007, but more of a rolling one bouncing from sector to sector. Which is kind of how it should be. In some ways I think tech is reaching the end of its recession. Where it goes next will be interesting.
- nicbou 2y agoI don't know about people's predictions, but there is a visible shift in the job market.
- AbstractH24 2y agoNot sure if you are suggesting a shift for better or worse and over what time frame. Despite my personal unemployment it seems things are better than they were in early 2022