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Using nuclear weapons to win a regional conflict is turning those weapons from strategic deterrent to a tactical tool. The moment when any nation will use them

Using nuclear weapons to win a regional conflict is turning those weapons from strategic deterrent to a tactical tool. The moment when any nation will use them in tactical way, say bye bye to non-proliferation treaty, every regional power will want to have at least tactical nukes. Countries like Japan, South Korea, Poland or Germany will want to have those tactical tools too. So sure, Russia can use nuclear weapons to push the conflict into Russian victory, but in the long run it will make multipolar world, which Russia and China crave so much a multipolar nightmare where nukes can fly at them from any bigger state.

mrangle 2y ago
But the discussion is whether or not Russia is bluffing, which is a decision that will be reflected in Western tactics. The discussion is not merely to come up with the scenarios that Russia is likely considering. Possible scenarios are simplistic and obvious. Predicting future action requires consideration of motivation, willingness to be reckless, spite, religious eschatology that may serve as a driving force, the real possibility of domestic double agents, unknown high level domestic sociopaths, unknown variables, and in our case unknown classified information. Implied in the discussion is what is being risked given any wrong conclusion. Which, for the sake of this discussion and perhaps in reality, should be assumed to be destruction. My point is that it is stupid, that is too high risk, to the point of suspicious for powerful people to dismiss Russia's threat as unlikely. With the caveat that the exception would be if unknowable classified information speaks to Russia being technologically incapable of being successful.