It almost certainly won't sway very many. But the Electoral College means that a small number of voters in the right place can radically change the outcome. Hi

It almost certainly won't sway very many. But the Electoral College means that a small number of voters in the right place can radically change the outcome. His supporters can't "vote harder", so it's entirely a question of how the marginal voters comes down on it. They don't have to switch their vote, but just decide to stay home. I doubt the effect will be measurable, given the vast number of confounding variables. But should he lose, they will almost certainly ascribe it at least in part to the conviction.