3 ms·

> The only rational take is to believe nations when they say that they will use them, not when they won't. If that were so, any country making a nuclear threat

> The only rational take is to believe nations when they say that they will use them, not when they won't. If that were so, any country making a nuclear threat (backed by capability) would get their wish granted. It doesn't work that way. Threats are assessed, weighed & countered. Bluffs are called. And miscalculations happen (for one: I'd wager Putin wouldn't have attacked Ukraine had he known in advance how things panned out so far). It's my hope that if Putin ever 'pushes the nuke button', some general or missile silo commander(s) will just say "No. Enough! We're not having this". Idle hope perhaps? More hoping - that things won't come to that. As for the non-nuclear part: it's really EU+US vs. Russia now, with Ukraine doing the dirty work. Whether Russia can 'win' depends entirely on how united / determined EU countries & the US are. In other words: politics & economics. Who wants more to win this war? Morale among Russian troops seems low. Any change in that on the horizon?

mrangle 2y ago
>If that were so, any country making a nuclear threat (backed by capability) would get their wish granted. Why? I said that capability is the metric. Followed by threats. Neither absolutely defines response. The primary takeaway is to NOT believe capable countries who say that they are against using them (China). When a capable nation makes the threat, only an irresponsible lunatic wouldn't take it seriously. However, a decision can be made from that starting point. In this instance, the "Russia can't win" take on why they won't engage in such an option isn't good theory in my opinion. As the invasion of Ukraine was a desperate counter-move. I believe that you are dead wrong in assuming that Russia didn't understand the probable response and outcome until now. I also think that you aren't considering the variable of even other options available to them and China. But also, that no one can credibly predict a limit to the specific desperation of arguably the most capable nuclear power in the World. Especially in the midst of an active military campaign.

mrangle 2y ago

>If that were so, any country making a nuclear threat (backed by capability) would get their wish granted. Why? I said that capability is the metric. Followed by threats. Neither absolutely defines response. The primary takeaway is to NOT believe capable countries who say that they are against using them (China). When a capable nation makes the threat, only an irresponsible lunatic wouldn't take it seriously. However, a decision can be made from that starting point. In this instance, the "Russia can't win" take on why they won't engage in such an option isn't good theory in my opinion. As the invasion of Ukraine was a desperate counter-move. I believe that you are dead wrong in assuming that Russia didn't understand the probable response and outcome until now. I also think that you aren't considering the variable of even other options available to them and China. But also, that no one can credibly predict a limit to the specific desperation of arguably the most capable nuclear power in the World. Especially in the midst of an active military campaign.