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I think it is Michelle Obama. That's what the "market" thinks. You are welcome to "arbitrage" it with some $! Biden has a non zero probability of dying before

by bjt1997 2y ago

I think it is Michelle Obama. That's what the "market" thinks. You are welcome to "arbitrage" it with some $! Biden has a non zero probability of dying before the election (of natural causes). Plus DNC nomination is a super pac driven process. Math might just compute.

senordevnyc 2y ago
Biden has a non zero probability of dying before the election (of natural causes). So does Trump, who is arguably in worse health, even if slightly younger.
mcphage 2y ago
> Biden has a non zero probability of dying before the election (of natural causes). Plus DNC nomination is a super pac driven process. Math might just compute. So the odds of Biden dying, times the odds of Michelle Obama wanting to run, times the odds of the DNC not picking Kamala Harris—the current VP, times the odds of Michelle Obama actually winning, might work out to 4%? ...uh... I don't even know what to say about that.
- bjt1997 2y ago
  You can just put money where your mouth is. Some betting sites offer contracts you can buy and sell.
  - mcphage 2y ago
    Hmm, yes, getting into financial contracts with people who live in cloud cuckoo land, for a few percentage points that get eaten up by the site itself seems like a good idea.
    - bjt1997 2y ago
      Correct attitude. Stay away from financial contracts.