3 ms·

>This stuff is not even a little bit ready for fully supervised operation. https://youtu.be/fpoXr_z_6a4?t=565 https://youtu.be/fpoXr_z_6a4?t=565 Thanks for sha

>This stuff is not even a little bit ready for fully supervised operation. https://youtu.be/fpoXr_z_6a4?t=565 https://youtu.be/fpoXr_z_6a4?t=565 Thanks for sharing. I skimmed through the video and watched a fair amount of it. I got a different impression. I thought it was impressive how FSD 12 navigated narrow winding roads with parked cars and oncoming traffic and flaggers holding signs that alternate between stop and slow. My impression was while it's not perfect, it's a few iterations away from having very few situations that require disengagement. And keeping in mind that every incident of disengagement is a learning and improving moment for FSD, the following iterations of FSD will continue to get more impressive.

ra7 2y ago
Here’s a Tesla failing to detect a train and crashing into a railroad crossing gate: https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/s/AghLi791rO https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/s/AghLi791rO This isn’t just “a few iterations away”. Most of what you said has been repeated for years from people who just watch curated YouTube videos. I’ve driven on FSD v12 and I’ve intervened multiple times almost every single drive. It’s nowhere near ready and will likely never be with that sensor suite.
- m348e912 2y ago
  I'll have to take your word for it. I don't have a Tesla and have no experience with FSD. The only thing I can say is that the videos I have watched are recent with no jump cuts or editing. Were they curated trips among many other trips that weren't posted? I have no way of knowing. The feedback seems to be that FSD 12 is noticeably better than previous versions. I suspect that Tesla is paying attention to the disengagement events and working hard to minimize them in the future, but I truly have no idea. Also I am sure this question has been asked before but what is good enough for FSD? Perfect in every situation? Better than the average human driver? At par or better than an expert professional driver? I don't have an answer personally but I am curious what others think.
  - ra7 2y ago
    Not everyone records themselves using FSD like YouTubers do. So you’re not seeing drives where it screws up. What’s good enough for FSD is being able to do it without a driver present like Waymo does. Their crowdsourced reliability data in https://www.teslafsdtracker.com/ https://www.teslafsdtracker.com/ suggests they need at least 3 orders of magnitude improvement to remove the driver.
rcxdude 2y ago
Waymo spent a long time at about that level as well, and it's a common situation with AI: you can get 80% of the way there really quickly, and then that next 19% takes orders of magnitude longer, and the next 0.9% is even harder, etc (pretty much anyone who's ever tried to actually apply a neural net for anything will have encountered this). Self-driving cars need a level of reliability basically unheard of for AI or even a classical software system of similar complexity (there's more complex software systems, and systems with higher reliability, but the product on self-driving cars is extreme). A liability-viable self-driving car needs to be reliable enough that you would expect to see zero significant errors in a typical journey. That's around the point where you will only have a few articles about one of your thousands of cars going wrong each month. Commercially viable needs better than that.

ra7 2y ago

Here’s a Tesla failing to detect a train and crashing into a railroad crossing gate: https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/s/AghLi791rO https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/s/AghLi791rO This isn’t just “a few iterations away”. Most of what you said has been repeated for years from people who just watch curated YouTube videos. I’ve driven on FSD v12 and I’ve intervened multiple times almost every single drive. It’s nowhere near ready and will likely never be with that sensor suite.

m348e912 2y ago
I'll have to take your word for it. I don't have a Tesla and have no experience with FSD. The only thing I can say is that the videos I have watched are recent with no jump cuts or editing. Were they curated trips among many other trips that weren't posted? I have no way of knowing. The feedback seems to be that FSD 12 is noticeably better than previous versions. I suspect that Tesla is paying attention to the disengagement events and working hard to minimize them in the future, but I truly have no idea. Also I am sure this question has been asked before but what is good enough for FSD? Perfect in every situation? Better than the average human driver? At par or better than an expert professional driver? I don't have an answer personally but I am curious what others think.
- ra7 2y ago
  Not everyone records themselves using FSD like YouTubers do. So you’re not seeing drives where it screws up. What’s good enough for FSD is being able to do it without a driver present like Waymo does. Their crowdsourced reliability data in https://www.teslafsdtracker.com/ https://www.teslafsdtracker.com/ suggests they need at least 3 orders of magnitude improvement to remove the driver.

rcxdude 2y ago

Waymo spent a long time at about that level as well, and it's a common situation with AI: you can get 80% of the way there really quickly, and then that next 19% takes orders of magnitude longer, and the next 0.9% is even harder, etc (pretty much anyone who's ever tried to actually apply a neural net for anything will have encountered this). Self-driving cars need a level of reliability basically unheard of for AI or even a classical software system of similar complexity (there's more complex software systems, and systems with higher reliability, but the product on self-driving cars is extreme). A liability-viable self-driving car needs to be reliable enough that you would expect to see zero significant errors in a typical journey. That's around the point where you will only have a few articles about one of your thousands of cars going wrong each month. Commercially viable needs better than that.