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This is obvious but I don't see it discussed or mentioned that often, so far. Massively decreasing the per mass cost of delivering any kind of cargo has huge a
by Diederich 2y ago
This is obvious but I don't see it discussed or mentioned that often, so far.
Massively decreasing the per mass cost of delivering any kind of cargo has huge and complex implications.
Massively decreasing the per mass cost of delivering cargo across oceans was a big deal.
Massively decreasing the per mass cost of delivering cargo across continents by rail/road was a big deal.
Massively decreasing the per mass cost of delivering cargo by air was a big deal.
"Big deal" here means all kinds of things, but let's talk about war.
Every one of the above mentioned steps caused radical changes in how wars were fought.
What have we seen over the past few years, even prior to 2022, in terms of drones? Massively decreasing the cost of precisely delivering small explosives over short ranges, with drones in this case, has been a game changer.
Even without a fully functional and reusable Starship system, SpaceX has greatly decreased the cost, cadence and reliability of delivering cargo into space. I understand the price they charge for individual launches is only 'somewhat' below the competition. That incremental but rather sudden decrease has already opened up a lot of doors.
A fully reusable Starship system drops that cost by at least another order of magnitude.
We are on the cusp of another revolution in warfare, and it's happening far, far more quickly than any of the other previous revolutions.
Imagine hundreds of thousands of smart kinetic munitions in many LEO orbital inclinations. According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_bombardment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_bombardment a 20kg tungsten kinetic munition in LEO would deliver about 11 tons of TNT to the ground. Each SpaceX fully reusable launch to LEO could deliver about 2,000 of these. I didn't look it up, but I believe SpaceX has done about 150 Starlink launches so far. If each of these had delivered 2,000 kinetic munitions, there would already be 300,000 up there.
As far as I know, there's absolutely no defense against this kind of munition. In LEO they're moving at about 8km/s, and just before sea level impact they're moving around 3.5km/s. At best there could be a few minutes of warning.
Any entity that controls such a constellation would have what is effectively absolute and permanent air supremacy while risking no 'friendly' human life.
As far as command/control/tracking/sensing? Very low $/kg to LEO fixes that too. See Starlink and Star Shield, right now.
Nobody can predict how this will go, except that it will definitely 'go' in unexpected directions.
- throw9474 2y agoAgree.. and no coincidence we're in this situation. The funding, key advisors, and the Elon-directed designs at SpaceX have always been very SDI and military aligned. Mars is a great way to inspire engineers that would otherwise not work at defense companies.