5 ms·

As a proponent of good public transportation I'm a bit afraid that automated taxis will get big enough in USA that they will start influence city wide decisions

As a proponent of good public transportation I'm a bit afraid that automated taxis will get big enough in USA that they will start influence city wide decisions on how to develop city transport network even in Europe when time comes for them to expand their business.

baron816 2y ago
I'm sorry but good public transit in the US isn't going to happen. Passenger rail has never been profitable anywhere since its very inception. With the rise of remote work, and declining ratios of working-age populations putting increasing pressure on public finances, we're just never going to see a widespread expansion of public transit. AVs give us a path toward a world where very few people need to own their own car. We can put all those parking spaces to better use. We can improve equity by giving more people access to safe, reliable, affordable, and convenient point-to-point transportation. Being able to consistently get a ride to where you need to go is something we consistently under-appreciate. It means being able to get a better paying job on the other side of town. Or not having to worry about missing a dialysis appointment, or a meeting with your parole officer or therapist. When the marginal cost of a robotaxi/robobus ride is close to zero is when the AI economic boom will really begin.
- skywhopper 2y ago
  How exactly will a robotaxi ride ever reach zero marginal cost?
  - baron816 2y ago
    With competition. The marginal cost for each ride is just cheap, abundant energy from renewables, and maintenance.
- c-cube 2y ago
  And the day the Google bot decides to close your account for obscure reasons, with no recourse, all you can do is stay in bed and starve cause all these things are now inaccessible to you ? Even if self driving actually happens, it'll be the ultimate surveillance-ridden, enshitiffied service that will ruin not just the internet but our whole lives and cities.
- eliaspro 2y ago
  > Passenger rail has never been profitable anywhere since its very inception. Interestingly, no one ever argued for the profitability of cars, so all we can do now is to calculate the overall economic costs and societal benefits and that's where public transport clearly and easily wins.
jillesvangurp 2y ago
No need to be afraid. Public transport will evolve to include small autonomous vehicles. The economies of scale you get by packing people in larger vehicles mostly have to do with the cost of fuel and staffing. Electrical autonomous vehicles don't have a need for a driver and electricity is relatively cheap. So you don't get much economies of scale by making them bigger. Most city journeys would be under a kwh. Even at current grid pricing that's cheap. Eventually, cheap autonomous vehicles could be mass produced at low cost and would have very low operational cost. So the ride cost would be comparable to, or lower than, current public transport options.
- Denvercoder9 2y ago
  > The economies of scale you get by packing people in larger vehicles mostly have to do with the cost of fuel and staffing. Trains (and train-like options such as metros) are vastly more efficient than cars in number of people moved per unit of time per area used. That might not be a big deal in suburbia, but in dense inner cities it's one of the most important drivers of public transport.
  - jillesvangurp 2y ago
    Autonomous vehicles could chain up or drive really close together and achieve similar space efficiency. Also, if you look at a train track. It's mostly empty space with a train passing occasionally. Very different than a well used road. And autonomous vehicles could collaborate to counter any congestion. What makes trains efficient has more to do with the cost of energy and drivers than anything else. Both of those go away if you have autonomous electrical vehicles.
    - drozycki 2y ago
      Not according to civil engineers (it's not even close) Private motor vehicles: 600 - 1600 per hour Mixed traffic with frequent buses: 1000 - 2800 per hour Two-way protected bikeway: 7500 per hour Dedicated transit lane: 4000 - 8000 per hour Sidewalk: 9000 per hour On-street transitway, bus or rail: 10000 - 25000 per hour https://nacto.org/publication/transit-street-design-guide/introduction/why/designing-move-people/ https://nacto.org/publication/transit-street-design-guide/in...
krisoft 2y ago
Don’t be. Autonomous vehicles can be busses too.
mike_hearn 2y ago
Taxis are a form of public transportation. After all, what's the major difference between a taxi and a bus other than capacity/driver attention?
- vincnetas 2y ago
  Major differences of Bus/Tram/Metro vs Car (robo or not) is number of passengers that can be transported per "time"/"dolar/"citi space used". And my feeling is that cars are not on the wining side here. And remember Bus/Tram/Metro can also be driverless.
- leoedin 2y ago
  Technically they are, yes, because they're open to the public. But the impact of taxis on road traffic in a dense city is comparable to the impact of private cars - perhaps even more so as they're often travelling empty between rides. If every journey which was previously done with a car is done with a taxi, there's no reduction in vehicle traffic - meaning the same problems of congestion and pedestrian safety. Driverless cars can probably drive closer on highways to increase throughput, but that doesn't really help in cities or residential areas. Ultimately if lots of people shift to driverless taxis to get around, there will be far more vehicles on our streets.
  - fire_lake 2y ago
    Taxis are often worse since they drive around looking for fares.
fire_lake 2y ago
People are already arguing against trains and bus lanes since “one day there will be self driving cars”.
tsycho 2y ago
I have the opposite take/hope. Self driving buses will be such a boon for public transportation. Now you can have 24 hour buses, that operate on holidays as well, or even dynamic, short term routes based on demand (eg: after a concert or sports event), without being dependent on the availability of pre-allocated human drivers.
ec109685 2y ago
Autonomous Trains. If you are not paying for the conductor, can’t you make trains much more appealing? They could run every five minutes, and last mile can be solved with autonomous car that is waiting for you when you arrive.

baron816 2y ago

I'm sorry but good public transit in the US isn't going to happen. Passenger rail has never been profitable anywhere since its very inception. With the rise of remote work, and declining ratios of working-age populations putting increasing pressure on public finances, we're just never going to see a widespread expansion of public transit. AVs give us a path toward a world where very few people need to own their own car. We can put all those parking spaces to better use. We can improve equity by giving more people access to safe, reliable, affordable, and convenient point-to-point transportation. Being able to consistently get a ride to where you need to go is something we consistently under-appreciate. It means being able to get a better paying job on the other side of town. Or not having to worry about missing a dialysis appointment, or a meeting with your parole officer or therapist. When the marginal cost of a robotaxi/robobus ride is close to zero is when the AI economic boom will really begin.

skywhopper 2y ago
How exactly will a robotaxi ride ever reach zero marginal cost?
- baron816 2y ago
  With competition. The marginal cost for each ride is just cheap, abundant energy from renewables, and maintenance.
c-cube 2y ago
And the day the Google bot decides to close your account for obscure reasons, with no recourse, all you can do is stay in bed and starve cause all these things are now inaccessible to you ? Even if self driving actually happens, it'll be the ultimate surveillance-ridden, enshitiffied service that will ruin not just the internet but our whole lives and cities.
eliaspro 2y ago
> Passenger rail has never been profitable anywhere since its very inception. Interestingly, no one ever argued for the profitability of cars, so all we can do now is to calculate the overall economic costs and societal benefits and that's where public transport clearly and easily wins.

jillesvangurp 2y ago

No need to be afraid. Public transport will evolve to include small autonomous vehicles. The economies of scale you get by packing people in larger vehicles mostly have to do with the cost of fuel and staffing. Electrical autonomous vehicles don't have a need for a driver and electricity is relatively cheap. So you don't get much economies of scale by making them bigger. Most city journeys would be under a kwh. Even at current grid pricing that's cheap. Eventually, cheap autonomous vehicles could be mass produced at low cost and would have very low operational cost. So the ride cost would be comparable to, or lower than, current public transport options.

Denvercoder9 2y ago
> The economies of scale you get by packing people in larger vehicles mostly have to do with the cost of fuel and staffing. Trains (and train-like options such as metros) are vastly more efficient than cars in number of people moved per unit of time per area used. That might not be a big deal in suburbia, but in dense inner cities it's one of the most important drivers of public transport.
- jillesvangurp 2y ago
  Autonomous vehicles could chain up or drive really close together and achieve similar space efficiency. Also, if you look at a train track. It's mostly empty space with a train passing occasionally. Very different than a well used road. And autonomous vehicles could collaborate to counter any congestion. What makes trains efficient has more to do with the cost of energy and drivers than anything else. Both of those go away if you have autonomous electrical vehicles.
  - drozycki 2y ago
    Not according to civil engineers (it's not even close) Private motor vehicles: 600 - 1600 per hour Mixed traffic with frequent buses: 1000 - 2800 per hour Two-way protected bikeway: 7500 per hour Dedicated transit lane: 4000 - 8000 per hour Sidewalk: 9000 per hour On-street transitway, bus or rail: 10000 - 25000 per hour https://nacto.org/publication/transit-street-design-guide/introduction/why/designing-move-people/ https://nacto.org/publication/transit-street-design-guide/in...

krisoft 2y ago

Don’t be. Autonomous vehicles can be busses too.

mike_hearn 2y ago

Taxis are a form of public transportation. After all, what's the major difference between a taxi and a bus other than capacity/driver attention?

vincnetas 2y ago
Major differences of Bus/Tram/Metro vs Car (robo or not) is number of passengers that can be transported per "time"/"dolar/"citi space used". And my feeling is that cars are not on the wining side here. And remember Bus/Tram/Metro can also be driverless.
leoedin 2y ago
Technically they are, yes, because they're open to the public. But the impact of taxis on road traffic in a dense city is comparable to the impact of private cars - perhaps even more so as they're often travelling empty between rides. If every journey which was previously done with a car is done with a taxi, there's no reduction in vehicle traffic - meaning the same problems of congestion and pedestrian safety. Driverless cars can probably drive closer on highways to increase throughput, but that doesn't really help in cities or residential areas. Ultimately if lots of people shift to driverless taxis to get around, there will be far more vehicles on our streets.
- fire_lake 2y ago
  Taxis are often worse since they drive around looking for fares.

fire_lake 2y ago

People are already arguing against trains and bus lanes since “one day there will be self driving cars”.

tsycho 2y ago

I have the opposite take/hope. Self driving buses will be such a boon for public transportation. Now you can have 24 hour buses, that operate on holidays as well, or even dynamic, short term routes based on demand (eg: after a concert or sports event), without being dependent on the availability of pre-allocated human drivers.

ec109685 2y ago

Autonomous Trains. If you are not paying for the conductor, can’t you make trains much more appealing? They could run every five minutes, and last mile can be solved with autonomous car that is waiting for you when you arrive.