5 ms·

We’ve been “close” for 10+ years now. We are not close.

currymj 2y ago
5 years ago you couldn't hop in a commercial self-driving taxi in a major US city. Now you can. The progress has been slower than everyone's predictions but it is still substantial.
- kube-system 2y ago
  In 1897, you could hop in a commercial electric taxi in London. Alas, Londoners still have many gasoline cars on the road. Availability and mass adoption are two very entirely different things. The time in which people take most commutes by any kind of car is: today... 51% of people commute by car currently. That took 136 years. 'most of the time' for 'most people' is quite a high bar. That's a lot of travel, for about 4 billion people. A few people in Phoenix taking one after a night at the bar doesn't even to begin to scratch that surface. We're very much still at the 'Carl Benz demoing his horseless carriage' stage of self-driving cars.
  - bluGill 2y ago
    IF, and this is a big if - self driving cars prove safer than human drivers in all conditions - governments will mandate it in all new cars and in 12 more years they will be the majority, and a few more years and governments will ban everything else (if not directly insurance via high rates). However right now they are not ready for that. They don't work in all conditions and we don't have unbiased safety studies.
    - kube-system 2y ago
      For varying definitions of “governments” and “will”. You’re looking at this from a very western perspective. For example, airbags have proven to drastically increase safety, yet almost a half-century later they’re still not required by many countries across 2 and a half continents. Governments only require safety equipment as far as their population can afford it.
      - bluGill 2y ago
        Most governments don't need to as they can leach off of it not being worth making a model without airbags.
        kube-system 2y ago
        Except that didn't happen. Leaving out parts is pretty easy to do, especially when those parts are hundreds of dollars each. Global automakers have, and still do, make different vehicles for different markets. And further, some only make vehicles for developing economies. For example, Pakistan required airbags in 2022, and they found necessary to do so because automakers were still making vehicles without them. https://propakistani.pk/2021/12/27/pakistan-to-ban-cars-without-airbags-soon/ https://propakistani.pk/2021/12/27/pakistan-to-ban-cars-with...
- lucianbr 2y ago
  65 years ago we had never traveled outside Earth's atmosphere. 50 years ago we had traveled to the Moon. Surely by now we are visiting the nearest star, no? It's incredible to me how many people honestly believe they can predict the future, when the future is so clearly unpredictable. Even while you acknowledge that everyone's predictions were too optimistic, in the very same sentence you insist on an optimistic prediction.
  - currymj 2y ago
    I didn't make any prediction at all.

5 years ago you couldn't hop in a commercial self-driving taxi in a major US city. Now you can. The progress has been slower than everyone's predictions but it is still substantial.

kube-system 2y ago
In 1897, you could hop in a commercial electric taxi in London. Alas, Londoners still have many gasoline cars on the road. Availability and mass adoption are two very entirely different things. The time in which people take most commutes by any kind of car is: today... 51% of people commute by car currently. That took 136 years. 'most of the time' for 'most people' is quite a high bar. That's a lot of travel, for about 4 billion people. A few people in Phoenix taking one after a night at the bar doesn't even to begin to scratch that surface. We're very much still at the 'Carl Benz demoing his horseless carriage' stage of self-driving cars.
- bluGill 2y ago
  IF, and this is a big if - self driving cars prove safer than human drivers in all conditions - governments will mandate it in all new cars and in 12 more years they will be the majority, and a few more years and governments will ban everything else (if not directly insurance via high rates). However right now they are not ready for that. They don't work in all conditions and we don't have unbiased safety studies.
  - kube-system 2y ago
    For varying definitions of “governments” and “will”. You’re looking at this from a very western perspective. For example, airbags have proven to drastically increase safety, yet almost a half-century later they’re still not required by many countries across 2 and a half continents. Governments only require safety equipment as far as their population can afford it.
    - bluGill 2y ago
      Most governments don't need to as they can leach off of it not being worth making a model without airbags.
      - kube-system 2y ago
        Except that didn't happen. Leaving out parts is pretty easy to do, especially when those parts are hundreds of dollars each. Global automakers have, and still do, make different vehicles for different markets. And further, some only make vehicles for developing economies. For example, Pakistan required airbags in 2022, and they found necessary to do so because automakers were still making vehicles without them. https://propakistani.pk/2021/12/27/pakistan-to-ban-cars-without-airbags-soon/ https://propakistani.pk/2021/12/27/pakistan-to-ban-cars-with...
lucianbr 2y ago
65 years ago we had never traveled outside Earth's atmosphere. 50 years ago we had traveled to the Moon. Surely by now we are visiting the nearest star, no? It's incredible to me how many people honestly believe they can predict the future, when the future is so clearly unpredictable. Even while you acknowledge that everyone's predictions were too optimistic, in the very same sentence you insist on an optimistic prediction.
- currymj 2y ago
  I didn't make any prediction at all.