4 ms·

The vast majority of bitcoin use is legal. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29396/w29396.pdf https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/

The vast majority of bitcoin use is legal. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29396/w29396.pdf https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29396/w293... > For example, illegal transactions, scams and gambling together make up less than 3% of volume. Sure there's the odd dumb criminal who doesn't understand the prosecutorial implications of an immutable public ledger. But it pales in comparison, according to the actual data.

evilfred 2y ago
wash trading is rampant https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-12/wash-trading-is-rampant-on-decentralized-crypto-exchanges https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-12/wash-trad...
unusualmonkey 2y ago
I love how you quote that, but not other lines like: "We first document that 90% of transaction volume on the Bitcoin blockchain is not tied to economically meaningful activities". How much of the actually meaningful use is legal? E.g. buying good and services, not evading laws, regulations, sales taxes etc.
- fallingsquirrel 2y ago
  Moving the goalposts. GP was only talking about illegal activity. But since you brought it up - Global GDP is $101T. Global yearly forex volume is $2738T. So by this logic you should conclude that 96% of transaction volume in the traditional financial system is also not tied to economically meaningful activities. You're going to be disappointed if you want to believe society as a whole is any less financialized than bitcoin. What do you think would be an acceptable percentage of speculation? https://www.compareforexbrokers.com/forex-trading/statistics/ https://www.compareforexbrokers.com/forex-trading/statistics... https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD
  - unusualmonkey 2y ago
    I think it's absurd to say that only say 3% of crypto transactions are criminal, if the majority of other transactions are meaningless. Surely what we actually care about is how many useful, legal, meaningful transactions there are. For example if for every 1 legal transaction there is 3 illegal transactions and 96 speculative or maintenance transactions... it starts looking like this is predominantly for criminal uses even though only 3% of transactions are criminal.
kube-system 2y ago
Yes, because most of the transfers happening are speculative investment trades, arbitrage, etc. People moving money around, without paying for anything. That source says, when it comes to the demand in terms of spending crypto for goods or services: > 46% of transactions are due to illegal transactions
- fallingsquirrel 2y ago
  The 46% is a quote from an obsoleted paper, and it then goes on to explain why their methodology was flawed.
  - kube-system 2y ago
    It’s a difference of opinion between the authors. If Bob transfers $10 back and forth between both of his bank accounts 99 times and then buys $10 worth of crack, would you say that 1% of Bobs money was used for illegal purposes or 100% of it was used for illegal purposes? Depends on what specifically you're trying to measure. There are two things here that are simultaneously true: 1. A small percent of BTC transactions are for illicit purposes. 2. A large percentage of the goods and services purchased with BTC are illicit.

evilfred 2y ago

wash trading is rampant https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-12/wash-trading-is-rampant-on-decentralized-crypto-exchanges https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-12/wash-trad...

unusualmonkey 2y ago

I love how you quote that, but not other lines like: "We first document that 90% of transaction volume on the Bitcoin blockchain is not tied to economically meaningful activities". How much of the actually meaningful use is legal? E.g. buying good and services, not evading laws, regulations, sales taxes etc.

fallingsquirrel 2y ago
Moving the goalposts. GP was only talking about illegal activity. But since you brought it up - Global GDP is $101T. Global yearly forex volume is $2738T. So by this logic you should conclude that 96% of transaction volume in the traditional financial system is also not tied to economically meaningful activities. You're going to be disappointed if you want to believe society as a whole is any less financialized than bitcoin. What do you think would be an acceptable percentage of speculation? https://www.compareforexbrokers.com/forex-trading/statistics/ https://www.compareforexbrokers.com/forex-trading/statistics... https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD
- unusualmonkey 2y ago
  I think it's absurd to say that only say 3% of crypto transactions are criminal, if the majority of other transactions are meaningless. Surely what we actually care about is how many useful, legal, meaningful transactions there are. For example if for every 1 legal transaction there is 3 illegal transactions and 96 speculative or maintenance transactions... it starts looking like this is predominantly for criminal uses even though only 3% of transactions are criminal.

kube-system 2y ago

Yes, because most of the transfers happening are speculative investment trades, arbitrage, etc. People moving money around, without paying for anything. That source says, when it comes to the demand in terms of spending crypto for goods or services: > 46% of transactions are due to illegal transactions

fallingsquirrel 2y ago
The 46% is a quote from an obsoleted paper, and it then goes on to explain why their methodology was flawed.
- kube-system 2y ago
  It’s a difference of opinion between the authors. If Bob transfers $10 back and forth between both of his bank accounts 99 times and then buys $10 worth of crack, would you say that 1% of Bobs money was used for illegal purposes or 100% of it was used for illegal purposes? Depends on what specifically you're trying to measure. There are two things here that are simultaneously true: 1. A small percent of BTC transactions are for illicit purposes. 2. A large percentage of the goods and services purchased with BTC are illicit.