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> UK has massively high house prices - at least in "desirable" areas, and some not so desirable ones where it's possible to commute to work in a desirable area.

by bArray 2y ago

> UK has massively high house prices - at least in "desirable" areas, and some not so desirable ones where it's possible to commute to work in a desirable area. Other than very undesirable areas, the house prices are pretty bad. I have friends living nowhere near London in remote Scotland noticing the house price increase. I've seen a local property double in price after ~11 years. > That doesn't necessarily reflect a shortage, it also reflects availability of money [..] It's not clear who has an availability of money. I'm aware of zero people within recent years buying a home without a mortgage. Availability of money has never been worse. > It took a while to filter through, sure, but in the end, it has - to the point where most families are now obligated to have two full-time earners. I don't think we're seeing 4x the living standard of 1970. It also doesn't explain that we see house prices increase by more than 4x relative to wages [1]. > Housing is a positional good (think about an auction where demand of the most desirable items will always exceed supply), the prices bear almost no relation to rational economic utility and every relation to how much cost people are able to bear. Which is one reason they're so responsive to interest rates i.e. debt affordability. It's didn't used to be like that. A house would feasibly cost between 4-10 years of one man's wage. But this would defend what I said, that demand outstrips supply. There is a saying at auctions: "it's only worth what somebody else is willing to pay for it." > we're using migrants to prop it up and provide much of the labour needed by the NHS, childcare and elderly care. It's not working, the NHS is failing. Where I live I cannot get an appointment any more. If I am lucky the doctor calls me and essentially prescribes anything I ask for. I recently saw a similar situation with midwifery. I generally don't find myself convinced that migration is a net good. They typically have dependants and create massive burdens on our infrastructure and systems. We are now at the state where children are deferred from starting school because there just are no palce > Our government is massively anti-immigration, and yet immigration remains high, the country can't and won't go cold-turkey on that: [..] I suspect not. If I am right in saying that immigration increases demand for housing and therefore the price, it would make sense that the Conservative party would keep this in place as their largest donors are property developers [2]. > The current system where they can't build apartment blocks on train-station car parks because a bunch of pensioners complain that it spoils their view is massively counterproductive. I don't think that is fair, the answer isn't to build on every square metre of the UK until it's gone. Besides, if they get rid of the train station car park, where will all the commuters park? (I've seen this one play out, they park everywhere else.) [1] http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/guides/456900/456991/html/nn2page1.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/guides/456900/456991/h... [2] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/mar/14/who-are-the-tories-recent-biggest-donors-after-frank-hester https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/mar/14/who-are-the...

Earw0rm 2y ago
> It's not clear who has an availability of money. I'm aware of zero people within recent years buying a home without a mortgage. Availability of money has never been worse. "Availability of money" includes the ability to apply for, and service the debt on, a mortgage. > I don't think we're seeing 4x the living standard of 1970. It also doesn't explain that we see house prices increase by more than 4x relative to wages [1]. I don't remember 1970, but there's no particular reason we should expect to have 4x living standard.. competition for housing can eat up a much bigger slice of the overall pie, as long as people are willing to compete. > But this would defend what I said, that demand outstrips supply. There is a saying at auctions: "it's only worth what somebody else is willing to pay for it." 100% - but if nobody CAN pay (the asking price), nobody will be willing to pay it. And that's where positional goods matter, because effectively people are jostling for a place in a ranked queue. The prices are a function of "how much money are the people in the queue able and willing to raise and deploy". And so it's natural to have situations where incomes might only go up by 50%, but house prices can rise MUCH more if interest rates are low and the bulk of that extra income is discretionary. > It's not working, the NHS is failing. Where I live I cannot get an appointment any more. If I am lucky the doctor calls me and essentially prescribes anything I ask for. I recently saw a similar situation with midwifery. Bad here too, but most of the staff are immigrants or of immigrant background so I find it hard to blame that on migration, it'd be a lot worse if they turned the taps off. It's more to do with our population (native Brits and 1960s/70s immigrants) being elderly, unhealthy and generally decrepit, and a health service that tries to do too much. It excels at keeping people alive, but it sucks at keeping them healthy. > We are now at the state where children are deferred from starting school because there just are no place Not the case here, in a high-immigration area: they're actually closing primary schools because there aren't enough kids to fill them. > I don't think that is fair, the answer isn't to build on every square metre of the UK until it's gone. Besides, if they get rid of the train station car park, where will all the commuters park? (I've seen this one play out, they park everywhere else.) They should walk or take the bus. I'm talking about stations that are at most a mile or so spread out and usually served by half a dozen bus routes, suburban zone 3 & 4 London. Wouldn't work further out where distances are longer.
- bArray 2y ago

by bArray 2y ago

Earw0rm 2y ago

> It's not clear who has an availability of money. I'm aware of zero people within recent years buying a home without a mortgage. Availability of money has never been worse. "Availability of money" includes the ability to apply for, and service the debt on, a mortgage. > I don't think we're seeing 4x the living standard of 1970. It also doesn't explain that we see house prices increase by more than 4x relative to wages [1]. I don't remember 1970, but there's no particular reason we should expect to have 4x living standard.. competition for housing can eat up a much bigger slice of the overall pie, as long as people are willing to compete. > But this would defend what I said, that demand outstrips supply. There is a saying at auctions: "it's only worth what somebody else is willing to pay for it." 100% - but if nobody CAN pay (the asking price), nobody will be willing to pay it. And that's where positional goods matter, because effectively people are jostling for a place in a ranked queue. The prices are a function of "how much money are the people in the queue able and willing to raise and deploy". And so it's natural to have situations where incomes might only go up by 50%, but house prices can rise MUCH more if interest rates are low and the bulk of that extra income is discretionary. > It's not working, the NHS is failing. Where I live I cannot get an appointment any more. If I am lucky the doctor calls me and essentially prescribes anything I ask for. I recently saw a similar situation with midwifery. Bad here too, but most of the staff are immigrants or of immigrant background so I find it hard to blame that on migration, it'd be a lot worse if they turned the taps off. It's more to do with our population (native Brits and 1960s/70s immigrants) being elderly, unhealthy and generally decrepit, and a health service that tries to do too much. It excels at keeping people alive, but it sucks at keeping them healthy. > We are now at the state where children are deferred from starting school because there just are no place Not the case here, in a high-immigration area: they're actually closing primary schools because there aren't enough kids to fill them. > I don't think that is fair, the answer isn't to build on every square metre of the UK until it's gone. Besides, if they get rid of the train station car park, where will all the commuters park? (I've seen this one play out, they park everywhere else.) They should walk or take the bus. I'm talking about stations that are at most a mile or so spread out and usually served by half a dozen bus routes, suburban zone 3 & 4 London. Wouldn't work further out where distances are longer.

bArray 2y ago