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Why is the vacancy rate so low in desirable neighborhoods? Is it that there isn’t enough housing period, in the entire country. Or is it is people and investme

Why is the vacancy rate so low in desirable neighborhoods? Is it that there isn’t enough housing period, in the entire country. Or is it is people and investments abandoning rural areas in favor of a handful of city neighborhoods? I’m also curious if those vacancy rates can be / have incentive to be gamed by the homeowners, or otherwise don’t paint a very accurate picture. I lived in a wealthy part of NYC for a while, and my apartment faced a courtyard on the interior of the block. As a result, I could see into the windows of 100s of apartments of 3 adjacent buildings. Only maybe like 5 out of 100s of apartments consistently had someone living in them. This reflects my feeling on the street: the streets were empty, especially given the relative density of the apartment buildings. I know this is anecdotal evidence, but everyone I know that lives in NYC has the same observation. I wish scientists and experts would take these concerns seriously and research by this gap in perception and the reported vacancy rate is so different.

ch4s3 2y ago
> Only maybe like 5 out of 100s of apartments consistently had someone living in them. I would be highly surprised if this were true. I lived in NYC for year and the myth of tons of empty units is pernicious and just won't die. There has been a TON of research on this topic and it all points to there being a huge shortage of housing in the city. As a percentage of total housing stock vacant units make up a fraction of a fraction of a percent.
- the_mar 2y ago
  Anecdotally, my apartment building has 0% vacancy rate. And a newer building across the street has at least 10 apartments vacant for the most of the year. Anecdotally, i know quite a few boomers that own multiple properties (>3) in manhattan, some of which they rent some of which they keep vacant for when they want to come to the city I feel like at least some % of apartments in the city are visibly vacant most of the time because they are just part time homes for the wealthy.
  - ch4s3 2y ago
    The research for this does account for pied-à-terres, which do exist in some number but are a tiny fraction of he total and mainly exist in a handful of Manhattan neighborhoods. There are only about 10K of these in NYC[1] which is 0.27% of the 3,644,000 total housing units in the city. This just doesn't seem like a real problem when the rental vacancy rate is shockingly 1.4%[2] (of the 2,183,064 total rental units). [1] https://www.brickunderground.com/buy/what-is-a-nyc-pied-a-terre-bricktionary https://www.brickunderground.com/buy/what-is-a-nyc-pied-a-te... [2] https://www.nyc.gov/site/hpd/news/007-24/new-york-city-s-vacancy-rate-reaches-historic-low-1-4-percent-demanding-urgent-action-new#/0 https://www.nyc.gov/site/hpd/news/007-24/new-york-city-s-vac...
    - hadlock 2y ago
      I struggle to believe that pied-a-terres are less than 1% in NYC, particularly in the post covid era. Maybe paid off condos in NYC owned by people who also live in Florida aren't counted somehow? Seems like everyone with a net worth of $2.5mm has two properties. My best friend's brother has a rent controlled manhattan apartment that sits vacant 80% of the time and is used as a crash pad for a rotating cast of ~12 people, what do you call that?
      - ch4s3 2y ago
        Why would you struggle to believe something that is accounted for in tax records and other city records? The median household income in NYC is about $70k almost no one relative to the population has a $2.5mm net worth. There are only 350,000 people in NYC with a net worth of more than 1mm.[1] Anecdote is clouding your understanding here, the idea that there are tons of empty units in NYC is just another luxury belief, it stands up to 0 scrutiny. [1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/n-y-c-more-millionaires-110000587.html# https://finance.yahoo.com/news/n-y-c-more-millionaires-11000...
  - chiefalchemist 2y ago
    Or are corporate owned. A good friend bought her Hell's Kithen flat (read: condo unit) from a Japanese company. Years ago I had another friend who worked for a company that had a sizeable place in the Village. Anecdotal, but probably common enough.
cycomanic 2y ago
Regarding your anecdote. I definitely notice the same thing, walk through the wealthiest parts of any bigger city and you will see many/most of the houses completely shuttered for >90% of the year. That also explains why the vacancy rates are low, the wealthiest 0.1% (whom ended up with much of the relief funding during the GFC and Covid) park most of their money in assets, but they are not interested in renting out these houses, so when they buy houses they reduce vacancy rates even when they don't live in them. Growing housing costs and wealth inequality have been extremely correlated, anyone looking for other reasons for the housing inequality really needs to have a very good explanation why they are not related.
JakaJancar 2y ago
I lived in the West Village for the last 6 years, also facing the courtyard and maybe seeing 20 apts, pretty much all consistently utilized ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
nostrademons 2y ago
Just a note that "occupied" != "can see people milling about". A lot of people (particularly in NYC) treat their apartment as just a place to sleep. During the day, they're at work. For breakfast and dinner, they eat out. In the evenings, they hit the clubs, or go over to a friend's, or visit one of any number of cultural attractions. That's why they live in NYC, because of the density of non-home forms of entertainment. Particularly if you value your privacy, it makes sense to keep the blinds permanently shuttered, leave your apartment in the morning and come back at night, and just sleep & shower there.
- bunderbunder 2y ago
  Heck, it can make financial sense too. We tend to keep our windows covered most the day regardless of season. In winter it helps to keep the heat in and there's no natural light to miss out on anyway. In summer it helps to keep the heat out, and we mostly don't care about natural light in the apartment because we're outside enjoying the weather. (What's even the point of living in the city with the highest % public green space in North America if we're going to just stay at home bingeing Netflix all evening?) And you can't necessarily see the lights on when somebody's home because we use the most blackout-y blackout curtains we can get. Urban light pollution has gotten so bad - especially since the switch to superbright LEDs - that they've become a sleep hygiene necessity.
- vidarh 2y ago
  This effect is also exacerbated in wealthier areas by bigger units. Units are less likely to seem lively because people are using a smaller proportion of rooms at any given time, and those rooms may not always even be visible to you. E.g. my grandparents flat would often have looked dark and abandoned from the courtyard, because that side of the flat was unused for much of the day, and often only lot when the curtains were closed, even when they were home and had visitors and a full house.
CrispyKerosene 2y ago
Desirable neighborhoods in Canada and US typically resemble pre-automobile orientated design type neighborhoods. These are on short supply. So while there might be enough physical houses around the country/province/city, what makes a place desirable to live extends far beyond the walls of your home.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]

ch4s3 2y ago

> Only maybe like 5 out of 100s of apartments consistently had someone living in them. I would be highly surprised if this were true. I lived in NYC for year and the myth of tons of empty units is pernicious and just won't die. There has been a TON of research on this topic and it all points to there being a huge shortage of housing in the city. As a percentage of total housing stock vacant units make up a fraction of a fraction of a percent.

the_mar 2y ago
Anecdotally, my apartment building has 0% vacancy rate. And a newer building across the street has at least 10 apartments vacant for the most of the year. Anecdotally, i know quite a few boomers that own multiple properties (>3) in manhattan, some of which they rent some of which they keep vacant for when they want to come to the city I feel like at least some % of apartments in the city are visibly vacant most of the time because they are just part time homes for the wealthy.
- ch4s3 2y ago
  The research for this does account for pied-à-terres, which do exist in some number but are a tiny fraction of he total and mainly exist in a handful of Manhattan neighborhoods. There are only about 10K of these in NYC[1] which is 0.27% of the 3,644,000 total housing units in the city. This just doesn't seem like a real problem when the rental vacancy rate is shockingly 1.4%[2] (of the 2,183,064 total rental units). [1] https://www.brickunderground.com/buy/what-is-a-nyc-pied-a-terre-bricktionary https://www.brickunderground.com/buy/what-is-a-nyc-pied-a-te... [2] https://www.nyc.gov/site/hpd/news/007-24/new-york-city-s-vacancy-rate-reaches-historic-low-1-4-percent-demanding-urgent-action-new#/0 https://www.nyc.gov/site/hpd/news/007-24/new-york-city-s-vac...
  - hadlock 2y ago
    I struggle to believe that pied-a-terres are less than 1% in NYC, particularly in the post covid era. Maybe paid off condos in NYC owned by people who also live in Florida aren't counted somehow? Seems like everyone with a net worth of $2.5mm has two properties. My best friend's brother has a rent controlled manhattan apartment that sits vacant 80% of the time and is used as a crash pad for a rotating cast of ~12 people, what do you call that?
    - ch4s3 2y ago
      Why would you struggle to believe something that is accounted for in tax records and other city records? The median household income in NYC is about $70k almost no one relative to the population has a $2.5mm net worth. There are only 350,000 people in NYC with a net worth of more than 1mm.[1] Anecdote is clouding your understanding here, the idea that there are tons of empty units in NYC is just another luxury belief, it stands up to 0 scrutiny. [1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/n-y-c-more-millionaires-110000587.html# https://finance.yahoo.com/news/n-y-c-more-millionaires-11000...
- chiefalchemist 2y ago
  Or are corporate owned. A good friend bought her Hell's Kithen flat (read: condo unit) from a Japanese company. Years ago I had another friend who worked for a company that had a sizeable place in the Village. Anecdotal, but probably common enough.

cycomanic 2y ago

Regarding your anecdote. I definitely notice the same thing, walk through the wealthiest parts of any bigger city and you will see many/most of the houses completely shuttered for >90% of the year. That also explains why the vacancy rates are low, the wealthiest 0.1% (whom ended up with much of the relief funding during the GFC and Covid) park most of their money in assets, but they are not interested in renting out these houses, so when they buy houses they reduce vacancy rates even when they don't live in them. Growing housing costs and wealth inequality have been extremely correlated, anyone looking for other reasons for the housing inequality really needs to have a very good explanation why they are not related.

JakaJancar 2y ago

I lived in the West Village for the last 6 years, also facing the courtyard and maybe seeing 20 apts, pretty much all consistently utilized ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

nostrademons 2y ago

Just a note that "occupied" != "can see people milling about". A lot of people (particularly in NYC) treat their apartment as just a place to sleep. During the day, they're at work. For breakfast and dinner, they eat out. In the evenings, they hit the clubs, or go over to a friend's, or visit one of any number of cultural attractions. That's why they live in NYC, because of the density of non-home forms of entertainment. Particularly if you value your privacy, it makes sense to keep the blinds permanently shuttered, leave your apartment in the morning and come back at night, and just sleep & shower there.

bunderbunder 2y ago
Heck, it can make financial sense too. We tend to keep our windows covered most the day regardless of season. In winter it helps to keep the heat in and there's no natural light to miss out on anyway. In summer it helps to keep the heat out, and we mostly don't care about natural light in the apartment because we're outside enjoying the weather. (What's even the point of living in the city with the highest % public green space in North America if we're going to just stay at home bingeing Netflix all evening?) And you can't necessarily see the lights on when somebody's home because we use the most blackout-y blackout curtains we can get. Urban light pollution has gotten so bad - especially since the switch to superbright LEDs - that they've become a sleep hygiene necessity.
vidarh 2y ago
This effect is also exacerbated in wealthier areas by bigger units. Units are less likely to seem lively because people are using a smaller proportion of rooms at any given time, and those rooms may not always even be visible to you. E.g. my grandparents flat would often have looked dark and abandoned from the courtyard, because that side of the flat was unused for much of the day, and often only lot when the curtains were closed, even when they were home and had visitors and a full house.

CrispyKerosene 2y ago

Desirable neighborhoods in Canada and US typically resemble pre-automobile orientated design type neighborhoods. These are on short supply. So while there might be enough physical houses around the country/province/city, what makes a place desirable to live extends far beyond the walls of your home.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]