3 ms·
It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future.
by zeroonetwothree 2y ago
It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future.
- bee_rider 2y agoWhen a prediction has a probability attached to it, it should be possible to check the math. In some sense it isn’t really a prediction about the future, so much as a statement about current information (which is not complete). Or, possibly, they are using “90% confidence” colloquially as “pretty sure.” If so, that should probably be made more clear. He’s using the fact that the researchers agree as an argument from authority, which is doubly wrong if the apparent authorities here were just giving their hunches.
- threecheese 2y agoIt’s a quote, and you are gonna laugh when you find out who said it.
- bee_rider 2y agoAttributed to Yogi Berra, I just don’t think it fits the situation here very well.
- spookie 2y ago"When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong."
- jessriedel 2y agoWe are quite clear in the abstract and the paper that the predictions are conditional on the continuation of the smooth progress seen to date. Contrary to the GP's interpretation, these predictions are holding up well.