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Fundamentally, it seems inevitable to me that AIs will outperform humans at programming eventually. Humans are terrible at tasks that involve sitting still for

Fundamentally, it seems inevitable to me that AIs will outperform humans at programming eventually. Humans are terrible at tasks that involve sitting still for long periods of time manipulating abstract symbols. They are not adapted to auch tasks at all. Our "general reasoning ability" enables us to do surprisingly much but it can only go so far when complexity of systems gets out of hand. However, I think we'll be fine on this front. Smart and able people will find something to do and the really scary consequences of automation-caused job loss are only seen in regions that are disproportionately affected, such as a production plant closing that employs half of an entire town. Programmers are quite wealthy by comparison, which gives them time and opportunities to adapt, and also usually live in big cities, which offer enough different jobs. What's really scaring me is the recent papers showing AI has theory-of-mind and persuasion capabilities on par with or even surpassing humans. One would think that's the one thing we're actually evolutionarily adapted for...

soco 2y ago
Excluding from this evolution the less "smart and able" people, whatever that is, means guaranteed social trouble. And when the pitchforks start running on the streets, living in a big city becomes rather a liability.
- staunton 2y ago
  I didn't really mean anything by this "exclusion" that is not already the case right now. Programers (just like anyone) who are able to solve various problems are doing well. Those who cannot, and who are not doing well can try doing something else, it's their choice. Basically, I just wanted to avoid claiming that "every single programmer will find a great new job". I guess there was no reason to put in this caveat. Economic developments have never been perfectly fair and neither will this one, which is obvious enough to not need mentioning. The wealth generated by such automation would allow for good social care systems and I hope we get some in any case. That's assuming we don't wipe ourselves out in the process.

soco 2y ago

Excluding from this evolution the less "smart and able" people, whatever that is, means guaranteed social trouble. And when the pitchforks start running on the streets, living in a big city becomes rather a liability.

staunton 2y ago
I didn't really mean anything by this "exclusion" that is not already the case right now. Programers (just like anyone) who are able to solve various problems are doing well. Those who cannot, and who are not doing well can try doing something else, it's their choice. Basically, I just wanted to avoid claiming that "every single programmer will find a great new job". I guess there was no reason to put in this caveat. Economic developments have never been perfectly fair and neither will this one, which is obvious enough to not need mentioning. The wealth generated by such automation would allow for good social care systems and I hope we get some in any case. That's assuming we don't wipe ourselves out in the process.