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Your math is correct, but you could be off by a factor of 100, which explains why VCs are interested. You assumed the best they can do is one meal per day per

Your math is correct, but you could be off by a factor of 100, which explains why VCs are interested. You assumed the best they can do is one meal per day per city. So in effect, they'd have 10 users (actively eating) per day per location. Why did you pick that number? I have been involved in that space for 2 years. We definitely have moved more way more than that number of people (to lunch) for one location. So maybe they'll reach 100 groups per day, at scale. Just like Meetup today has hundreds of meetups everyday in large cities. Now you're talking $100M in revenue, which means a valuation approaching $1B. VCs do invest in such odds. EDIT: if it makes you feel any better, tens of VCs I pitched to did conclude that the market was too small.

grubwithme 14y ago
I picked 1 meal per day because its larger than their current volume in either NYC or SF and a milestone they should probably hit before getting to 100 meals per day per city. I agree that it COULD be 100 meals per day per city, but I have no indication that the market is interested or would support that. I want to guess what their business is worth right now, not some hypothetical future projection. You have moved more than 10 people to lunch for one location. Have you done that on a sustained (daily) basis for 50 locations? Because that's what my numbers are saying, and that's a bleak scenario. I am not saying the investment is bad. I'm saying "please show me how this investment is good". There are a lot of ways it MIGHT be good, like: 1. yelp has been secretly wanting to buy something like this for 100m. 2. there is evidence that they can fill 50 tables a night in kalamazoo michigan I just don't have that data, so from what I've seen I can't tell that it's awesome. I want it to be awesome. Show me.
grubwithme 14y ago
I picked 1 meal per day because its larger than their current volume in either NYC or SF and a milestone they should probably hit before getting to 100 meals per day per city. I agree that it COULD be 100 meals per day per city, but I have no indication that the market is interested or would support that. I want to guess what their business is worth right now, not some hypothetical future projection. You have moved more than 10 people to lunch for one location. Have you done that on a sustained (daily) basis for 50 locations? Because that's what my numbers are saying, and that's a bleak scenario. I am not saying the investment is bad. I'm saying "please show me how this investment is good". There are a lot of ways it MIGHT be good, like: 1. yelp has been secretly wanting to buy something like this for 100m. 2. there is evidence that they can fill 50 tables a night in kalamazoo michigan I just don't have that data, so from what I've seen I can't tell that it's awesome. I want it to be awesome. Show me.

grubwithme 14y ago

I picked 1 meal per day because its larger than their current volume in either NYC or SF and a milestone they should probably hit before getting to 100 meals per day per city. I agree that it COULD be 100 meals per day per city, but I have no indication that the market is interested or would support that. I want to guess what their business is worth right now, not some hypothetical future projection. You have moved more than 10 people to lunch for one location. Have you done that on a sustained (daily) basis for 50 locations? Because that's what my numbers are saying, and that's a bleak scenario. I am not saying the investment is bad. I'm saying "please show me how this investment is good". There are a lot of ways it MIGHT be good, like: 1. yelp has been secretly wanting to buy something like this for 100m. 2. there is evidence that they can fill 50 tables a night in kalamazoo michigan I just don't have that data, so from what I've seen I can't tell that it's awesome. I want it to be awesome. Show me.

grubwithme 14y ago