3 ms·

https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/05/the-atlantic-hurricane-season-begins-soon-hold-on-to-your-butts/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/05/the-atlantic-hu

• defrost 2y ago
  Good article wrt question of forecasts and accuracy - charts 30 past years of forecasts and matching observations. It might be easy to dismiss the Pennsylvania forecast. In some corners of the Internet, Mann is viewed as a master of climate doomerism for his outspoken views on the perils of a warming world. But if anything, since its first issuance in 2007, Mann's forecast has proven to be conservative. etc.
  • remarkEon 2y ago
    The forecast accuracy could use a dedicated article. It tracked very well from ~1997-2002, 2008-2012, and 2014-2015. It was off, from 1994-1996, 2003-2004, 2006-2007 2015-2020. In 3 of the 4 cases there the fore cast under-predicted major storms, outside the std of the forecast. I wonder why.