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La Niña is coming, raising the chances of a dangerous Atlantic hurricane season
- chasebank 2y agoI’d love to see historical statistics on annual prediction vs what actually happened with regards to El Niño/ La Niña. Spend most of my teens and early twenties chasing storms in the pnw and vividly remember prediction years not panning out but I’d rather see stats than relying on my memory.
- neom 2y agoNot that you're asking for, but when poking around for what you asked for, I found a cool article explaining prediction methods: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/predicting-el-ni%C3%B1o-then-and-now https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/predicting-...
- sp332 2y agohttps://arstechnica.com/science/2024/05/the-atlantic-hurricane-season-begins-soon-hold-on-to-your-butts/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/05/the-atlantic-hurrica...
- defrost 2y agoGood article wrt question of forecasts and accuracy - charts 30 past years of forecasts and matching observations. It might be easy to dismiss the Pennsylvania forecast. In some corners of the Internet, Mann is viewed as a master of climate doomerism for his outspoken views on the perils of a warming world. But if anything, since its first issuance in 2007, Mann's forecast has proven to be conservative. etc.
- remarkEon 2y agoThe forecast accuracy could use a dedicated article. It tracked very well from ~1997-2002, 2008-2012, and 2014-2015. It was off, from 1994-1996, 2003-2004, 2006-2007 2015-2020. In 3 of the 4 cases there the fore cast under-predicted major storms, outside the std of the forecast. I wonder why.
- bamboozled 2y ago[flagged]
- pests 2y agosp332 posted some data above
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- Gys 2y agoNot much about possible consequences for Europe. This is mainly about the Atlantic and the US. Some time ago (beginning 2023?) I read that El Nino meant more rain for Europe and indeed the last Winter brought more than average rain there. It is funny that I never read any references to this relationship. Only articles expressing surprise how that rain 'suddenly' fell. so I assume for Europe we get a more dry and warm period by the end of the Summer.
- toomuchtodo 2y agoA more dry Europe is concerning; Portugal seems to be wet as ever, but Spain's drought is not abating and would be not great if it worsens. https://apnews.com/article/spain-drought-barcelona-climate-ba6f65b6ce01e3a7b081586e602a38e7 https://apnews.com/article/spain-drought-barcelona-climate-b... https://www.npr.org/2024/02/18/1232301986/in-spain-a-years-long-drought-is-pitting-locals-against-the-tourism-industry https://www.npr.org/2024/02/18/1232301986/in-spain-a-years-l... https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/04/03/spain-on-track-for-hottest-first-quarter-on-record-have-heavy-rains-helped-with-severe-dro https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/04/03/spain-on-track-for... https://fortune.com/europe/2024/04/19/spain-drought-barcelona-water-desalination-plant/ https://fortune.com/europe/2024/04/19/spain-drought-barcelon...
- DataDive 2y ago50% of the time, they are right every time. Depending on which camp you are in, you have evidence that it works well or evidence that it does not. All it takes is a bit of selective memory.
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 2y agoFrom NOAA: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal... Tropical Tidbits also has a good explanation of the factors that are at play: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFID_jfNId4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFID_jfNId4