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I've read all of Taleb's major works, twice. "The Most Intolerant Wins" is not in any way an explanation of the market failure of EVs. His canonical example wa

I've read all of Taleb's major works, twice. "The Most Intolerant Wins" is not in any way an explanation of the market failure of EVs. His canonical example was "kosher food is acceptable to nearly everyone, and required by a small minority." Thus kosher takes over. "EVs vs. ICEs" is nothing like that. EVs have been rejected by vast numbers of consumers because they find them impractical. That's all.

pdonis 2y ago
> His canonical example was "kosher food is acceptable to nearly everyone, and required by a small minority." Thus kosher takes over. Which is a great example of how Taleb's "examples" are BS. Really, when Taleb goes into a grocery store, is all of the food kosher? Or even a majority? Kosher has not "taken over". It's a niche product.
- AlbertCory 2y ago
  so why did you quote him in the first place? Secondly, his examples were from the Middle East, where kosher food is indeed ubiquitous even for non-Jewish consumers. Because almost no one really objects to it. Whereas US consumers really do object to EVs.
  - pdonis 2y ago
    > why did you quote him in the first place? I didn't bring Taleb into the thread, adolph did. > his examples were from the Middle East Not the one in the article adolph referenced: "The Kosher population represents less than three tenth of a percent of the residents of the United States. Yet, it appears that almost all drinks are Kosher."
    - dghlsakjg 2y ago
      > "The Kosher population represents less than three tenth of a percent of the residents of the United States. Yet, it appears that almost all drinks are Kosher." This implies that some sort of considered effort has been made to produce these drinks as kosher. This is just paying some money to get the private certification and the license to put it on the can. In the context of a drink, the drink ingredients is almost certainly already kosher, so the certification is just saying: "there was no cross-contamination in the making of this product". Which isn't a special consideration made for kosherness. If I told you that you could increase your TAM by a million people, and open new wholesale marketing opportunities for a onetime payment of ~$1000, you take the deal.
adolph 2y ago
I don’t think the EV market has failed in any way. What makes you think it has failed? My analogy for the most intolerant wins is treating a decision-maker’s personal values as a population, one of which is “the most intolerant” and thus drives the decision because the others are indifferent to that quality. There are a variety of aesthetic or prosaic values that might drive a decision for EV or ICE. A minority of those values will likely drive the decision since the majority will be satisfied by any number of options.
- AlbertCory 2y ago
  > I don’t think the EV market has failed in any way. What makes you think it has failed? I guess you don't read the Wall Street Journal, or otherwise follow automotive news. I don't feel a need to provide links for you. > the others are indifferent to that quality No auto buyer is indifferent to the choice of EV vs ICE.
  - adolph 2y ago
    If you got nothing to back up your assertion there is no need to type it out. Let your thumbs relax in a fact free zone.
    - AlbertCory 2y ago
      it's not up to me to prove to you what everyone knows. Except you, apparently.
  - nebula8804 2y ago
    Growth is slower this year vs last year but the growth is still happening... How is that a failure? Slow sales are occurring across the entire auto industry probably because people are broke/unemployed and dont want to spend the cash right now.
  - dghlsakjg 2y ago
    > I guess you don't read the Wall Street Journal, or otherwise follow automotive news. I don't feel a need to provide links for you. I don't read the WSJ, but I do understand numbers. This site seems to indicate that 4% of global new car sales were electric in 2020, and 18% are electric at the end of 2023. https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales What are you reading that would indicate that an industry segment that is up 450% in four years has "failed"? You have made an extraordinary claim, and refuse to back it up in the face of compelling evidence. The rate of growth is falling, but the overall sales trend is still up. Perhaps you are confused with the math, and the difference between rate of growth and growth?

pdonis 2y ago

> His canonical example was "kosher food is acceptable to nearly everyone, and required by a small minority." Thus kosher takes over. Which is a great example of how Taleb's "examples" are BS. Really, when Taleb goes into a grocery store, is all of the food kosher? Or even a majority? Kosher has not "taken over". It's a niche product.

AlbertCory 2y ago
so why did you quote him in the first place? Secondly, his examples were from the Middle East, where kosher food is indeed ubiquitous even for non-Jewish consumers. Because almost no one really objects to it. Whereas US consumers really do object to EVs.
- pdonis 2y ago
  > why did you quote him in the first place? I didn't bring Taleb into the thread, adolph did. > his examples were from the Middle East Not the one in the article adolph referenced: "The Kosher population represents less than three tenth of a percent of the residents of the United States. Yet, it appears that almost all drinks are Kosher."
  - dghlsakjg 2y ago
    > "The Kosher population represents less than three tenth of a percent of the residents of the United States. Yet, it appears that almost all drinks are Kosher." This implies that some sort of considered effort has been made to produce these drinks as kosher. This is just paying some money to get the private certification and the license to put it on the can. In the context of a drink, the drink ingredients is almost certainly already kosher, so the certification is just saying: "there was no cross-contamination in the making of this product". Which isn't a special consideration made for kosherness. If I told you that you could increase your TAM by a million people, and open new wholesale marketing opportunities for a onetime payment of ~$1000, you take the deal.

adolph 2y ago

I don’t think the EV market has failed in any way. What makes you think it has failed? My analogy for the most intolerant wins is treating a decision-maker’s personal values as a population, one of which is “the most intolerant” and thus drives the decision because the others are indifferent to that quality. There are a variety of aesthetic or prosaic values that might drive a decision for EV or ICE. A minority of those values will likely drive the decision since the majority will be satisfied by any number of options.

AlbertCory 2y ago
> I don’t think the EV market has failed in any way. What makes you think it has failed? I guess you don't read the Wall Street Journal, or otherwise follow automotive news. I don't feel a need to provide links for you. > the others are indifferent to that quality No auto buyer is indifferent to the choice of EV vs ICE.
- adolph 2y ago
  If you got nothing to back up your assertion there is no need to type it out. Let your thumbs relax in a fact free zone.
  - AlbertCory 2y ago
    it's not up to me to prove to you what everyone knows. Except you, apparently.
- nebula8804 2y ago
  Growth is slower this year vs last year but the growth is still happening... How is that a failure? Slow sales are occurring across the entire auto industry probably because people are broke/unemployed and dont want to spend the cash right now.
- dghlsakjg 2y ago
  > I guess you don't read the Wall Street Journal, or otherwise follow automotive news. I don't feel a need to provide links for you. I don't read the WSJ, but I do understand numbers. This site seems to indicate that 4% of global new car sales were electric in 2020, and 18% are electric at the end of 2023. https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales What are you reading that would indicate that an industry segment that is up 450% in four years has "failed"? You have made an extraordinary claim, and refuse to back it up in the face of compelling evidence. The rate of growth is falling, but the overall sales trend is still up. Perhaps you are confused with the math, and the difference between rate of growth and growth?