You can do the math on this, I don't think anyone does. I did the math with some basic assumptions using some simple queueing theory, which unfortunately I don'

You can do the math on this, I don't think anyone does. I did the math with some basic assumptions using some simple queueing theory, which unfortunately I don't remember very well right now, but your intuition is correct. It isn't charging time one needs to worry about, it's charging time and queuing time. In a city with high rates of home ownership, home charging might solve the latter (assuming infrastructure can handle it), but on busy transit corridors the queueing time will be the predominant factor.