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I always assumed when the baby boomers retired there would be a flood of big family houses coming up for sale. I see it in my parents that they're pretty comfo

by rr808 2y ago

I always assumed when the baby boomers retired there would be a flood of big family houses coming up for sale. I see it in my parents that they're pretty comfortable staying in the family house as long as possible, I'm happy with this. It is made a lot easier by the fact that prices keep going up so staying in a house that is oversized financially is rewarding. I'd like to think it'll all come to and end one day as the spiral reverses, but I've been wrong for so long now I'm losing faith.

omnibrain 2y ago
> I've been wrong for so long now I'm losing faith There is a saying: „The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.“
- tossandthrow 2y ago
  Yep, exactly. Variable rate mortgages have varying lengths, and we will see the entire unfold in roughly 3 years. Which is probably a mix of stagnant house prices and severe salary increases (for the ordinary person). We are in a wealth dispersion period now (I think) - The ordinary people will catch up with tech workers, and high-salary epople (as in: reducing the number of multiples in the salary)
throw383y8 2y ago
[flagged]
- fmajid 2y ago
  The old vote, and the young don’t. The Tories are the natural party of seniors in any case.
- yakshaving_jgt 2y ago
  I think the “latest fad” you’re using as outrage bait here is from ~8 years ago.
  - mamonster 2y ago
    I think he is referring to the Tory pledge of reintroducing the National Service, given that probably like 85% of the concerned would be used to keep the NHS afloat and the 15% would go to the army.
  - rsynnott 2y ago
    They're probably referring to the Tory's proposed 'national service' thing, which showed up yesterday and is already being walked back; the Tories, facing fairly dramatic defeat in the upcoming elections, are throwing all sorts of nonsense at the wall to see what sticks right now.
mschuster91 2y ago
> I always assumed when the baby boomers retired there would be a flood of big family houses coming up for sale. Here in Munich, they indeed are... and wherever possible, they and their often beautiful gardens get torn down, and the entire plot gets "densified" by creating as much indoor space as possible. What was one house for one family is now at least 6-8 apartments for DINKs, often built in shoddy quality with corners cut everywhere but priced and sold at record amounts (that still get paid because all the tech and car bros massively distort the wage market). On one side, it's positive because the lack of housing is absurd. On the other side, none of the surrounding infrastructure was built with that density in mind. Parking overflows everywhere because you physically (slope angle vs lot size) can't create enough garage spaces, traffic itself is getting more and more dangerous as the small streets have been built as tiny veins but now have to carry 2-3x the traffic load, public transport can't handle it as well, doctors/kindergartens/schools are on the verge of collapse, the grid operator doesn't allow PV or EV installation because all the density increase would first require a complete overhaul of the last mile distribution grid. And on top of that, biodiversity has taken a visible hit as all the trees and bushes getting ripped out and replaced by steel eyesores and yards being replaced by gravel so that the hipsters don't have to bother with mowing a lawn don't support insect life, so the birds vanish as well. No free-roaming cats any more either thanks to traffic. Seriously, screw urbanization and gentrification. We absolutely need to revitalize rural areas again.
- pavlov 2y ago
  > “Seriously, screw urbanization and gentrification. We absolutely need to revitalize rural areas again.” Covid-19 was effectively a massive experiment to test whether people want that, and turns out they didn’t.
  - Rinzler89 2y ago
    People want to have their cake and eat it too. They want the peace and quiet of single family homes with lots of space of rural areas for their garden and kids, with the job opportunities, infrastructure and amenities of modern dense hip vibrant cities where the best schools, jobs and entertainment are within walking distance or short commutes by public transportation. There's obviously gonna be a shortage of such housing arrangements, and therefore will come at hefty prices everywhere.
freitzkriesler2 2y ago
There won't be because of the massive number of immigration the country has faced. Either intentional or unintentional, this has the effect of increasing demand and with interest rates high supply is constrained.
- 0_____0 2y ago
  Housing construction having peaked 40 years ago might have something to do with it.
cush 2y ago
Unfortunately, similar to the housing crisis , there’s a retirement home crisis and many people can’t afford long term care without selling the home they wanted to leave to their children.
- FireBeyond 2y ago
  And then (and I'll admit a cynicism here, from having seen the best of the best to the worst of the worst) retirement homes (ironically often owned by Boomers) chronically underpay their employees so many of the facilities I've seen in my time as a paramedic, I wouldn't send my worst enemy to. There is distinctly a segment of that populace who have on one hand, pissed off their children sufficiently that they don't want them living with the family in retirement, and on the other have studiously applied the "fuck you, got mine" mentality throughout their life such that their retirement or nursing home options are little better than "fade away just on the right side of the line of neglect".
missedthecue 2y ago
How does this logic work when the next generation/incoming demographic is even bigger? Boomers aren't an isolated bloc of people followed by 20-year-olds. It's a continuous expanding number of X year olds every year. For specific USA numbers: There are 18.7 million 65-69 year olds. There are 21.1 million 60-64 year olds. There are 22.3 million 55-59 year olds. Etc... You can't have one demographic retire/die off and everything is cheap again -- because there is always another demographic moving right into their place all the time.
- rr808 2y ago
  https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/06/americas-age-profile-told-through-population-pyramids.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/... You are right, but I think in the 10 years lots of the 55-59 people die off so wont be larger. Then the pyramid shrinks.

by rr808 2y ago

omnibrain 2y ago

> I've been wrong for so long now I'm losing faith There is a saying: „The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.“

tossandthrow 2y ago
Yep, exactly. Variable rate mortgages have varying lengths, and we will see the entire unfold in roughly 3 years. Which is probably a mix of stagnant house prices and severe salary increases (for the ordinary person). We are in a wealth dispersion period now (I think) - The ordinary people will catch up with tech workers, and high-salary epople (as in: reducing the number of multiples in the salary)

throw383y8 2y ago

[flagged]

fmajid 2y ago
The old vote, and the young don’t. The Tories are the natural party of seniors in any case.
yakshaving_jgt 2y ago
I think the “latest fad” you’re using as outrage bait here is from ~8 years ago.
- mamonster 2y ago
  I think he is referring to the Tory pledge of reintroducing the National Service, given that probably like 85% of the concerned would be used to keep the NHS afloat and the 15% would go to the army.
- rsynnott 2y ago
  They're probably referring to the Tory's proposed 'national service' thing, which showed up yesterday and is already being walked back; the Tories, facing fairly dramatic defeat in the upcoming elections, are throwing all sorts of nonsense at the wall to see what sticks right now.

mschuster91 2y ago

> I always assumed when the baby boomers retired there would be a flood of big family houses coming up for sale. Here in Munich, they indeed are... and wherever possible, they and their often beautiful gardens get torn down, and the entire plot gets "densified" by creating as much indoor space as possible. What was one house for one family is now at least 6-8 apartments for DINKs, often built in shoddy quality with corners cut everywhere but priced and sold at record amounts (that still get paid because all the tech and car bros massively distort the wage market). On one side, it's positive because the lack of housing is absurd. On the other side, none of the surrounding infrastructure was built with that density in mind. Parking overflows everywhere because you physically (slope angle vs lot size) can't create enough garage spaces, traffic itself is getting more and more dangerous as the small streets have been built as tiny veins but now have to carry 2-3x the traffic load, public transport can't handle it as well, doctors/kindergartens/schools are on the verge of collapse, the grid operator doesn't allow PV or EV installation because all the density increase would first require a complete overhaul of the last mile distribution grid. And on top of that, biodiversity has taken a visible hit as all the trees and bushes getting ripped out and replaced by steel eyesores and yards being replaced by gravel so that the hipsters don't have to bother with mowing a lawn don't support insect life, so the birds vanish as well. No free-roaming cats any more either thanks to traffic. Seriously, screw urbanization and gentrification. We absolutely need to revitalize rural areas again.

pavlov 2y ago
> “Seriously, screw urbanization and gentrification. We absolutely need to revitalize rural areas again.” Covid-19 was effectively a massive experiment to test whether people want that, and turns out they didn’t.
- Rinzler89 2y ago
  People want to have their cake and eat it too. They want the peace and quiet of single family homes with lots of space of rural areas for their garden and kids, with the job opportunities, infrastructure and amenities of modern dense hip vibrant cities where the best schools, jobs and entertainment are within walking distance or short commutes by public transportation. There's obviously gonna be a shortage of such housing arrangements, and therefore will come at hefty prices everywhere.

freitzkriesler2 2y ago

There won't be because of the massive number of immigration the country has faced. Either intentional or unintentional, this has the effect of increasing demand and with interest rates high supply is constrained.

0_____0 2y ago
Housing construction having peaked 40 years ago might have something to do with it.

cush 2y ago

Unfortunately, similar to the housing crisis , there’s a retirement home crisis and many people can’t afford long term care without selling the home they wanted to leave to their children.

FireBeyond 2y ago
And then (and I'll admit a cynicism here, from having seen the best of the best to the worst of the worst) retirement homes (ironically often owned by Boomers) chronically underpay their employees so many of the facilities I've seen in my time as a paramedic, I wouldn't send my worst enemy to. There is distinctly a segment of that populace who have on one hand, pissed off their children sufficiently that they don't want them living with the family in retirement, and on the other have studiously applied the "fuck you, got mine" mentality throughout their life such that their retirement or nursing home options are little better than "fade away just on the right side of the line of neglect".

missedthecue 2y ago

How does this logic work when the next generation/incoming demographic is even bigger? Boomers aren't an isolated bloc of people followed by 20-year-olds. It's a continuous expanding number of X year olds every year. For specific USA numbers: There are 18.7 million 65-69 year olds. There are 21.1 million 60-64 year olds. There are 22.3 million 55-59 year olds. Etc... You can't have one demographic retire/die off and everything is cheap again -- because there is always another demographic moving right into their place all the time.

rr808 2y ago
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/06/americas-age-profile-told-through-population-pyramids.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/... You are right, but I think in the 10 years lots of the 55-59 people die off so wont be larger. Then the pyramid shrinks.