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I'm just looking at the untapped potential in terms of R&D pipelines of various companies out there. Gazillions of battery, solar, etc. innovations in various s
by jillesvangurp 2y ago
I'm just looking at the untapped potential in terms of R&D pipelines of various companies out there. Gazillions of battery, solar, etc. innovations in various stages of progress and coming to market. The only way I see this ending soon is if somehow all of those researchers are going to hit a brick wall and all progress stops. Even if that happens, it would take a while for growth to stop. But realistically, R&D is going to continue to work fine for quite some time and will be continuing to deliver the goods.
Specifically, I'm expecting within the next 2 decades or so
- further reductions in cost of solar energy generation. It's already cheap but another few cost halvings won't hurt. I'm thinking 0.001 dollar per kwh cost levels. About 1 order of magnitude less than today.
- increases in battery capacities over time from ~0.5kw/kg now to at least 2-3kw/kg enabling lots of new use cases (e.g. short haul flight).
- new cheaper battery chemistries and thermal batteries giving us all the energy storage we'll ever need. Battery production is already crossing the 1TWH/year rate right now.
- maybe we'll get some fusion going at some point (a wildcard, I admit). I'm not a big believer in nuclear fairy tales but if somebody at all odds gets micro reactors going at a reasonable cost level, why not (the cost levels are the issue here, 0.001 dollar per kwh is the competition).