3 ms·

Is there a way to put money on this? I'd be willing to put down a fair amount against your prediction.

wcoenen 2y ago
If they win the bet against you, you'll both be dead by definition of the bet. Therefore the bet doesn't make sense and shouldn't be taken seriously.
- im_anon_on_hn 2y ago
  It could go to the estate.
- tbrownaw 2y ago
  Something like https://longbets.org/ https://longbets.org/ maybe? The funds get held by a third party, and go to the winner's choice of charity rather than to the winner.
janalsncm 2y ago
Encrypt a file with “2000s era cryptography” (not too sure what that would be). The file contains instructions on how to unlock a sum of money.
- sebzim4500 2y ago
  Ok, but how do I make money from that?
xhkkffbf 2y ago
You could bet in Bitcoin. If the quantum computer doesn't exist, one person gets it. If the quantum computer appears that can break the Bitcoin digital signatures, well, then the Bitcoin is worthless.
- tedunangst 2y ago
  For some reason, this reminds me of the ding dong who bet bitcoin would hit a million dollars, immediately lost, then claimed he was the real winner because it proved people were interested in bitcoin.
  - sebzim4500 2y ago
    That bet was the least interesting thing about John McAfee.
  - andirk 2y ago
    I believe he said he would eat a ding dong too.
- sebzim4500 2y ago
  I'm sure someone smarter than me can come up with a way of making bitcoin quantum-safe with a soft fork. Of course, the addresses created right now would still be at risk.
tedunangst 2y ago
Problem with long term bets is time value eats away at escrow. But sure, come back in 20 years and we'll settle up at whatever a week's worth of US median salary is. (For specifics, 2000 era crypto is 1024 bit RSA. I'm not betting against a conventional supercomputer factoring such coprimes though.)
arglebargle123 2y ago
One of the University of Iowa B schools runs a futures market that'll let you bet on predicted event outcomes https://iem.uiowa.edu/ https://iem.uiowa.edu/ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Electronic_Markets https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Electronic_Markets

If they win the bet against you, you'll both be dead by definition of the bet. Therefore the bet doesn't make sense and shouldn't be taken seriously.

im_anon_on_hn 2y ago
It could go to the estate.
tbrownaw 2y ago
Something like https://longbets.org/ https://longbets.org/ maybe? The funds get held by a third party, and go to the winner's choice of charity rather than to the winner.

janalsncm 2y ago

Encrypt a file with “2000s era cryptography” (not too sure what that would be). The file contains instructions on how to unlock a sum of money.

sebzim4500 2y ago
Ok, but how do I make money from that?

xhkkffbf 2y ago

You could bet in Bitcoin. If the quantum computer doesn't exist, one person gets it. If the quantum computer appears that can break the Bitcoin digital signatures, well, then the Bitcoin is worthless.

tedunangst 2y ago
For some reason, this reminds me of the ding dong who bet bitcoin would hit a million dollars, immediately lost, then claimed he was the real winner because it proved people were interested in bitcoin.
- sebzim4500 2y ago
  That bet was the least interesting thing about John McAfee.
- andirk 2y ago
  I believe he said he would eat a ding dong too.
sebzim4500 2y ago
I'm sure someone smarter than me can come up with a way of making bitcoin quantum-safe with a soft fork. Of course, the addresses created right now would still be at risk.

tedunangst 2y ago

Problem with long term bets is time value eats away at escrow. But sure, come back in 20 years and we'll settle up at whatever a week's worth of US median salary is. (For specifics, 2000 era crypto is 1024 bit RSA. I'm not betting against a conventional supercomputer factoring such coprimes though.)

arglebargle123 2y ago

One of the University of Iowa B schools runs a futures market that'll let you bet on predicted event outcomes https://iem.uiowa.edu/ https://iem.uiowa.edu/ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Electronic_Markets https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Electronic_Markets