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Doubling down on my bet nobody reading this will live to see a quantum computer that breaks year 2000 era crypto.
by tedunangst 2y ago
Doubling down on my bet nobody reading this will live to see a quantum computer that breaks year 2000 era crypto.
- sebzim4500 2y agoIs there a way to put money on this? I'd be willing to put down a fair amount against your prediction.
- wcoenen 2y agoIf they win the bet against you, you'll both be dead by definition of the bet. Therefore the bet doesn't make sense and shouldn't be taken seriously.
- im_anon_on_hn 2y agoIt could go to the estate.
- tbrownaw 2y agoSomething like https://longbets.org/ https://longbets.org/ maybe? The funds get held by a third party, and go to the winner's choice of charity rather than to the winner.
- janalsncm 2y agoEncrypt a file with “2000s era cryptography” (not too sure what that would be). The file contains instructions on how to unlock a sum of money.
- sebzim4500 2y agoOk, but how do I make money from that?
- xhkkffbf 2y agoYou could bet in Bitcoin. If the quantum computer doesn't exist, one person gets it. If the quantum computer appears that can break the Bitcoin digital signatures, well, then the Bitcoin is worthless.
- tedunangst 2y agoFor some reason, this reminds me of the ding dong who bet bitcoin would hit a million dollars, immediately lost, then claimed he was the real winner because it proved people were interested in bitcoin.
- sebzim4500 2y agoThat bet was the least interesting thing about John McAfee.
- andirk 2y agoI believe he said he would eat a ding dong too.
- sebzim4500 2y agoI'm sure someone smarter than me can come up with a way of making bitcoin quantum-safe with a soft fork. Of course, the addresses created right now would still be at risk.
- tedunangst 2y agoProblem with long term bets is time value eats away at escrow. But sure, come back in 20 years and we'll settle up at whatever a week's worth of US median salary is. (For specifics, 2000 era crypto is 1024 bit RSA. I'm not betting against a conventional supercomputer factoring such coprimes though.)
- arglebargle123 2y agoOne of the University of Iowa B schools runs a futures market that'll let you bet on predicted event outcomes https://iem.uiowa.edu/ https://iem.uiowa.edu/ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Electronic_Markets https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_Electronic_Markets
- sassy_quat 2y ago[dead]
- juped 2y agoThis ends up being a bet mostly about medical life extension, since drastically longer human lifespans are more likely than quantum computers going anywhere soon.
- oconnore 2y agoIt occurs to me that in year 2000, we had already invented Kerberos, Merkle trees, AES, and McEliece. Kerberos for one is built on symmetric cryptography, and is as far as I'm aware not vulnerable to the sorts of attacks that make RSA, Diffie-Hellman, and EC solve-able by a sufficiently advanced quantum computer. How do you define your bet such that you don't just win by default?