4 ms·

You are still not getting it. If someone says "we installed 1GW of capacity" then what does that mean? It means you've either got 1GW of dispatchable generatio

by XorNot 2y ago

You are still not getting it. If someone says "we installed 1GW of capacity" then what does that mean? It means you've either got 1GW of dispatchable generation on hand, or some proportionally much smaller amount of non-dispatchable generation on hand. The number doesn't mean anything without correct context which was the entire point. But "dispatchable" is key. Choosing to run a thermal powerplant at lower output due to market conditions is different to literally being unable to generate energy. So talking about "X increase in renewables" doesn't tell you a thing, which was the entire point I was making. If you build 100GW of solar then in temperate Australian regions it's actually like having 25, in Germany it's like having 10, and in the California desert I guess you maybe get 40. What you don't get, is 100GW on demand. And overnight you get zero. All of which has a pretty substantial effect on whether "installed capacity" can move the needle on total CO2 emissions because the effect on grid production is much less linear then traditional thermal power plants.

Retric 2y ago
> "we installed 1GW of capacity" “Wind and solar supplied 12% of global electricity in 2022” that’s the number I am tracking not how many panels they happened to use. Location and other details matter. Plopping down Solar in the UK, Germany, or southeastern Australia is a poor investment. So no I don’t give a fuck about hypothetical GW in dumb locations, it’s also irrelevant to the point I was making. > can move the needle on total CO2 emissions because the effect on grid production is much less linear then traditional thermal power plants. Batteries + Solar means is more linear than thermal not less. Again just track renewables by kWh over the year not simply nameplate capacity if that’s what you want to know. It’s not some secret people actively tack and report it as useful information. As to the rest of your points, market conditions exist before you install the power plant. Initially the question is wind or solar more useful needs to be addressed. Pick solar and many choices remain. Install solar with 1 or even 2 axis tracking and you get more hours per day of generation from the same land and panels than fixed installation but higher cost per kWh. Install it X miles west and power comes on a little later each day. Add a battery and you can shift supply within the day. People don’t just plop down panels randomly there’s a huge amount of optimization up front to maximize long term gains. Thermal on the other hand has fewer levers, shifting the power plants location doesn’t help match the demand curve and there’s no option for cheaper but less reliable output. The economics also completely kill the idea of having batteries to cover the after work spike in demand etc etc. Right now people are trying to decide if they want a power plant that’s only going to provide 45% of hypothetical capacity while still being forced to pay the full construction costs. Net result an absolutely massive increase in how much wind and solar generation is used not just installed each year.
- XorNot 2y ago
  > “The amount of renewable energy capacity added to energy systems around the world grew by 50% in 2023 Literally the quote I was responding to, with a source, before you ran off on this tangent, I presume because you can't read. You've continually failed basic reading comprehension here.
  - Retric 2y ago
    Look up the user name on that comment before you dig yourself in deeper. The very first sentence of my initial response to you specifically countered that argument, but you just want to keep repeating it as if it was somehow meaningful. But I hardly care at this point so I’ll leave with a more simple rebuttal: Grid scale Solar’s global capacity factor has been flat over the last several years. So kW vs kWh only matters at the local level, globally the difference is a rounding error in terms of climate change and it’s going to remain that way for at least a decade.

by XorNot 2y ago

Retric 2y ago

> "we installed 1GW of capacity" “Wind and solar supplied 12% of global electricity in 2022” that’s the number I am tracking not how many panels they happened to use. Location and other details matter. Plopping down Solar in the UK, Germany, or southeastern Australia is a poor investment. So no I don’t give a fuck about hypothetical GW in dumb locations, it’s also irrelevant to the point I was making. > can move the needle on total CO2 emissions because the effect on grid production is much less linear then traditional thermal power plants. Batteries + Solar means is more linear than thermal not less. Again just track renewables by kWh over the year not simply nameplate capacity if that’s what you want to know. It’s not some secret people actively tack and report it as useful information. As to the rest of your points, market conditions exist before you install the power plant. Initially the question is wind or solar more useful needs to be addressed. Pick solar and many choices remain. Install solar with 1 or even 2 axis tracking and you get more hours per day of generation from the same land and panels than fixed installation but higher cost per kWh. Install it X miles west and power comes on a little later each day. Add a battery and you can shift supply within the day. People don’t just plop down panels randomly there’s a huge amount of optimization up front to maximize long term gains. Thermal on the other hand has fewer levers, shifting the power plants location doesn’t help match the demand curve and there’s no option for cheaper but less reliable output. The economics also completely kill the idea of having batteries to cover the after work spike in demand etc etc. Right now people are trying to decide if they want a power plant that’s only going to provide 45% of hypothetical capacity while still being forced to pay the full construction costs. Net result an absolutely massive increase in how much wind and solar generation is used not just installed each year.

XorNot 2y ago
> “The amount of renewable energy capacity added to energy systems around the world grew by 50% in 2023 Literally the quote I was responding to, with a source, before you ran off on this tangent, I presume because you can't read. You've continually failed basic reading comprehension here.
- Retric 2y ago
  Look up the user name on that comment before you dig yourself in deeper. The very first sentence of my initial response to you specifically countered that argument, but you just want to keep repeating it as if it was somehow meaningful. But I hardly care at this point so I’ll leave with a more simple rebuttal: Grid scale Solar’s global capacity factor has been flat over the last several years. So kW vs kWh only matters at the local level, globally the difference is a rounding error in terms of climate change and it’s going to remain that way for at least a decade.