4 ms·

Atlantic hurricane season will be 'extraordinary,' forecasters warn

40 points by geox 2y ago

mistrial9 2y ago
for the quantitatively engaged https://berkeleyearth.org/data/ https://berkeleyearth.org/data/ https://climatereanalyzer.org/ https://climatereanalyzer.org/
- ungawatkt 2y ago
  And for some more in depth discussion on the models and weather patterns while still being accessible, tropical tidbits released an outlook video this week https://youtu.be/QFID_jfNId4 https://youtu.be/QFID_jfNId4
  - johnz 2y ago
    I’m happy to see Tropical Tidbits in this thread but am also surprised that Levi’s site and content doesn’t appear on HN more often.
clircle 2y ago
[flagged]
- inpdx 2y ago
  A strong likelihood of an historic hurricane season is news. At a minimum it alerts people in hurricane areas to plan ahead.
  - superfunny 2y ago
    How good are these predictions?
    - Animats 2y ago
      Good enough to convince insurance companies to raise rates above the current extra $4000 Florida homeowners pay for hurricane insurance.[1][2] [1] https://www.wptv.com/money/real-estate-news/hurricane-season-stands-to-disrupt-floridas-insurance-industry https://www.wptv.com/money/real-estate-news/hurricane-season... [2] https://www.wptv.com/money/real-estate-news/coverage-collapse-town-hall-9-5-23 https://www.wptv.com/money/real-estate-news/coverage-collaps...
ghastmaster 2y ago
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane2024/May/hurricane.shtml https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane202... > The outlook calls for an 85% chance of an above-normal season, along with a 10% chance for a near-normal season and a 5% chance for a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. The updated 2024 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during the 2024 hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1st through November 30th: 17-25 Named Storms 8-13 Hurricanes 4-7 Major Hurricanes Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 150%-245% of the median
gmuslera 2y ago
It will be interesting to see how this one compares with the 2005 season (that had 28 named storms, and 4 category 5 hurricanes, Katrina among them) and the 2020 season (that had 31, but no category 5 hurricanes).
mrbluecoat 2y ago
> the eastern half of the country For Missouri's sake, I hope they meant eastern seaboard :D
WheelsAtLarge 2y ago
Does anyone have any idea if the hurricanes will eventually hit the U.S. West Coast? Will climate change change the climate so much that the West Coast will eventually see hurricanes?
- mistrial9 2y ago
  the Tropical Tidbits video linked here suggests that there will be lower than normal cyclone activity in Pacific band from S. California westward, due to cool waters
- ungawatkt 2y ago
  Low risk, but never say never. Hilary in 2023 caused a bunch of flooding in SoCal and the NHC sent out a tropical storm warning, but with the California Current keeping the water cold along the west coast there's a pretty big barrier in the way, plus the winds blow away from the coast on average in that region. Hilary is a good example: it was a Cat 4 until it hit the cold water, landed as a Tropical Storm, and lost steam fairly quickly as an organized system (though still had impact via rainfall). Storms might start stronger and get further north, but I don't think it's high on the list of risks.
EverydayBalloon 2y ago
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40 points by geox 2y ago

for the quantitatively engaged https://berkeleyearth.org/data/ https://berkeleyearth.org/data/ https://climatereanalyzer.org/ https://climatereanalyzer.org/

ungawatkt 2y ago
And for some more in depth discussion on the models and weather patterns while still being accessible, tropical tidbits released an outlook video this week https://youtu.be/QFID_jfNId4 https://youtu.be/QFID_jfNId4
- johnz 2y ago
  I’m happy to see Tropical Tidbits in this thread but am also surprised that Levi’s site and content doesn’t appear on HN more often.

clircle 2y ago

[flagged]

inpdx 2y ago
A strong likelihood of an historic hurricane season is news. At a minimum it alerts people in hurricane areas to plan ahead.
- superfunny 2y ago
  How good are these predictions?
  - Animats 2y ago
    Good enough to convince insurance companies to raise rates above the current extra $4000 Florida homeowners pay for hurricane insurance.[1][2] [1] https://www.wptv.com/money/real-estate-news/hurricane-season-stands-to-disrupt-floridas-insurance-industry https://www.wptv.com/money/real-estate-news/hurricane-season... [2] https://www.wptv.com/money/real-estate-news/coverage-collapse-town-hall-9-5-23 https://www.wptv.com/money/real-estate-news/coverage-collaps...

ghastmaster 2y ago

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane2024/May/hurricane.shtml https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane202... > The outlook calls for an 85% chance of an above-normal season, along with a 10% chance for a near-normal season and a 5% chance for a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. The updated 2024 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during the 2024 hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1st through November 30th: 17-25 Named Storms 8-13 Hurricanes 4-7 Major Hurricanes Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 150%-245% of the median

gmuslera 2y ago

It will be interesting to see how this one compares with the 2005 season (that had 28 named storms, and 4 category 5 hurricanes, Katrina among them) and the 2020 season (that had 31, but no category 5 hurricanes).

mrbluecoat 2y ago

> the eastern half of the country For Missouri's sake, I hope they meant eastern seaboard :D

WheelsAtLarge 2y ago

Does anyone have any idea if the hurricanes will eventually hit the U.S. West Coast? Will climate change change the climate so much that the West Coast will eventually see hurricanes?

mistrial9 2y ago
the Tropical Tidbits video linked here suggests that there will be lower than normal cyclone activity in Pacific band from S. California westward, due to cool waters
ungawatkt 2y ago
Low risk, but never say never. Hilary in 2023 caused a bunch of flooding in SoCal and the NHC sent out a tropical storm warning, but with the California Current keeping the water cold along the west coast there's a pretty big barrier in the way, plus the winds blow away from the coast on average in that region. Hilary is a good example: it was a Cat 4 until it hit the cold water, landed as a Tropical Storm, and lost steam fairly quickly as an organized system (though still had impact via rainfall). Storms might start stronger and get further north, but I don't think it's high on the list of risks.

EverydayBalloon 2y ago

[dead]